建信期货镍日报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 11th, nickel prices fluctuated within a narrow range, mainly following the sector and market sentiment. The main contract operated between 136,000 - 138,000 yuan. The total open interest slightly decreased by 138 to 365,000 lots. The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5.5 to 1,092.5 yuan per nickel point compared to the previous day. The market's low - price supplies were basically consumed, and the cost of available supplies from upstream smelters was relatively high, so the quotes began to rise. The tender prices of mainstream steel mills boosted the purchasing sentiment of steel mills, driving the market transaction center to rise again. Nickel iron prices may still have room to rise. The price of nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 32,070 yuan per ton. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association expects the Indonesian government to accept RKAB revision applications in July, potentially increasing the 2026 quota by up to 30%, alleviating concerns about the nickel ore supply gap this year. However, considering that the tight supply of nickel ore is a fact, there is still some support for nickel prices at the lower end. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to be dominated by policy - side impacts, with a focus on changes in Indonesian industrial policies, and a range - trading approach is recommended for now [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Nickel price on the 11th: Narrow - range fluctuation, main contract in the range of 136,000 - 138,000 yuan, total open interest slightly decreased by 138 to 365,000 lots [8] - Nickel iron price: The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5.5 to 1,092.5 yuan per nickel point, with potential for further increase [8] - Nickel sulfate price: Remained unchanged at 32,070 yuan per ton [8] - Policy impact: The Indonesian government is expected to accept RKAB revision applications in July, potentially increasing the 2026 quota by up to 30%, with nickel prices having some support at the lower end and being dominated by policy - side impacts [8] 3.2行业要闻 - Vale: In 2025, its nickel production reached 177,000 tons, the highest since 2022, a year - on - year increase of 10.69% (17,100 tons). The Q4 production was 46,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. It expects 2026 nickel production to be between 175,000 - 200,000 tons [9] - First Quantum Minerals Ltd.: In 2025, copper production was about 396,000 tons within the revised guidance range, gold production was about 152,000 ounces above the upper limit of the guidance, and Enterprise nickel production exceeded expectations. It slightly lowered the 2026 - 2027 copper and gold production guidance, kept the nickel production guidance unchanged, expected higher unit copper cash cost and AISC, and raised the 2026 capital expenditure guidance. The Panama government agreed to process Cobre Panamá inventory ores [10] - Indonesia: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. The ESDM plans to strategically adjust the 2026 nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to 250 - 260 million tons, and has allowed the existing quota to be extended until March 31, 2026, with the actual annual supply depending on later government evaluation and quota addition [10]