农产品早报-20260312

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center, dated March 12, 2026 [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, in corn, prices in Changchun remained stable, while in Weifang it increased by 10. The basis changed by -14, and trade profit decreased by 10. In starch, prices in Heilongjiang remained stable, and in Weifang increased by 20. The basis changed by -12, and processing profit increased by 13 [3] Core View - Short - term: For corn, post - Lantern Festival, trade activities resumed. Front - end supply is tight, and back - end consumption replenishment drives price up. It's driven by short - term supply - demand mismatch. For starch, raw material cost increase led to price increase. Post - festival production increased, and downstream replenishment supported inventory reduction [4] - Long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gap. For starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes after seasonal peak [4] Group 3: Sugar Data Summary - From March 5 - 10, 2026, sugar prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming showed fluctuations. The basis and import profit also changed. The number of warehouse receipts had a small change [6] Core View - International: Fundamentals slightly strengthened. India cut 25/26 production estimate, and ISO cut global surplus estimate. Crude oil rise may boost raw sugar price [7] - Domestic: After the festival, there was discussion on import policy. The market was volatile and strong. Some processing plants had low out - of - quota import cost, but there was hedging pressure on the upper side of the market [7] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 220. The import profit and other data also had corresponding changes [8] Core View - Low initial inventory offset most of the production increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, domestic consumption - promotion policies, and good export performance, cotton demand is expected to improve. New - season Xinjiang planting area may decrease, so cotton is suitable for long - term long position [8] Group 5: Eggs Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, egg prices in some regions remained stable, and the basis increased by 1 [10] Core View - The gap between culled chicken and white chicken prices widened, indicating slower culling. High - level chicken replenishment peaked in April 2025. Current slow culling may be active delay by farmers, post - poning supply pressure. Feed cost increase compressed egg - laying profit. Considering the basis structure of 05 and 06 contracts, a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [10] Group 6: Apples Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, apple prices in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable. National inventory decreased by 9, Shandong inventory increased by 67, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 10 [16][17] Core View - This week, apple sales in production areas varied. Western areas had better sales, with good - quality apple prices rising in Gansu. Shandong had average sales, with more low - price transactions. In the sales areas, post - festival sales were stable, but the arrival volume decreased and sales slowed down [17] Group 7: Pigs Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, pig prices in some regions decreased, and the basis increased by 10 [17] Core View - The weekend pig spot market adjusted weakly. Group supply was abundant, social pig farms resisted low prices, and consumption was weak. Capacity reduction was limited, there was inventory pressure in the off - season, and prices were under medium - term pressure. Pay attention to factors like farmers' selling weight, second - fattening entry, and frozen product storage after price decline. Futures had a premium, and prices were easily affected by sentiment [17]