大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260312

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to trend stronger today due to factors such as cost support, rising external crude oil prices, neutral inventory, and recovering downstream demand, despite some negative factors like a negative basis and net - short main positions [4]. - The PP market is also expected to trend stronger today, with cost support, rising external crude oil prices, neutral inventory, and recovering downstream demand, although there are negative factors such as net - short and increasing short positions in the main contract [7]. Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation in the Middle East is tense with the Strait of Hormuz shipping mostly disrupted. Many countries will release strategic reserves, and external crude oil rose at night. In the supply - demand side, downstream agricultural film enterprises'开工 has significantly increased with the start of spring plowing demand. Packaging film is mainly based on rigid demand, with strong wait - and - see sentiment due to rising raw material prices. The pipe industry's operating rate has slightly rebounded with construction sites starting work. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7750 (+150), and the fundamentals are generally bullish [4]. - Basis: The LLDPE 2605 contract basis is - 404, with a premium - discount ratio of - 5.0%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 62.5 tons (+3.1), neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Positions: The LLDPE main contract has net - short positions with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract disk fluctuates widely. Affected by the Iran situation and rising external crude oil prices at night, with neutral inventory and recovering downstream demand, it is expected to trend stronger today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly due to geopolitics, and the main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policies [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the February official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points. The Iran situation is tense, and external crude oil rose at night. In the supply - demand side, multiple PDH units are shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The plastic - weaving industry's operating rate has slightly increased with improved enterprise orders, while the BOPP operating rate has abnormally decreased, and downstream is resistant to high - price raw materials. The current PP delivery spot price is 8200 (+350), and the fundamentals are generally bullish [7]. - Basis: The PP 2605 contract basis is 3, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 65.8 tons (+0.3), neutral [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - Main Positions: The PP main contract has net - short positions with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract disk fluctuates widely. Affected by the Iran situation and rising external crude oil prices at night, with neutral inventory and recovering downstream demand, it is expected to trend stronger today [7]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly due to geopolitics, and the main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [8]. Market Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 7750 (+150), the 05 contract price is 8154 (+387), the basis is - 404 (-237). PE comprehensive factory inventory is 62.5 tons (+3.1), and social inventory is 66.3 tons (-11) [9]. - PP: The spot delivery price is 8200 (+350), the 05 contract price is 8197 (+377), the basis is 3 (-27). PP comprehensive factory inventory is 65.8 tons (+0.3), and social inventory is 32.4 tons (-21) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and apparent consumption show an upward trend, with a decreasing trend in import dependence. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].