大越期货沪铜早报-20260312

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The copper market has a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. The supply side is disturbed, the manufacturing PMI has declined, the basis is neutral, the inventory has increased, the price is at a high level and fluctuating, and the short - term is expected to be volatile. [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Supply side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The February manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. [2] Basis - The spot price is 101320, and the basis is 170, showing a premium over futures, which is neutral. [2] Inventory - On March 11, copper inventory increased by 10125 to 312075 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 33616 tons to 425145 tons compared with last week, which is bearish. [2] Disk Analysis - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is bearish. [3] Main Position - The main net position is long, but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish. [3] Near - term利多利空Analysis - Likely factors: Geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine, Iran - US - Israel, Fed rate cuts, slow mine - end production increase, and production reduction events in Freeport's Indonesian mining area. [5] - Negative factors: Repeated US comprehensive tariffs and the global economic downturn combined with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption. [5] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024. [20][22] Other Information - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has declined. [14][16]