大越期货钢材早报-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black commodity sector will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "reality of high inventory" and the "expectation of peak-season demand." In the short term, whether the intensity of demand recovery can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot and Basis - For rebar, the spot price and basis are 95, indicating a bullish signal [1] - For hot-rolled coil, the spot price is 3250 yuan/ton, and the basis is -19, indicating a bearish signal [2] Profit and Cost - Not provided Capacity and Inventory - For rebar, the supply is continuously recovering, and both steel mill and social inventories are accumulating. The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, showing a month-on-month and year-on-year increase, indicating a bearish signal [1] - For hot-rolled coil, the social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory pressure is particularly prominent. The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, showing a month-on-month and year-on-year increase, indicating a bearish signal [2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - Not provided Hot-Rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The recovery strength of downstream consumption is still insufficient to digest the high-level inventory, indicating a bearish signal [2] Macro - Not provided