大越期货油脂早报-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating and consolidating, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8800, the basis is 230, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main position: The long position of the soybean oil main contract has increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9540, the basis is 14, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main position: The short position of the palm oil main contract has decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9400 - 9800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10300, the basis is 522, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main position: The short position of the rapeseed oil main contract has increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global oil and fat fundamental situation is relatively loose [5]