大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260312

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For Shanghai Nickel (2605), it will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamentals are bearish as March production is scheduled to increase, domestic inventory is piling up, and market supply is abundant. The nickel ore bullish sentiment is strong, but there is a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and cold trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices are rebounding, and stainless - steel demand is weak. The new energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis is bullish, inventory is bearish, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bullish [2]. - For stainless steel (2604), it will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamentals are neutral with stable spot prices, strong cost support from rising nickel - iron prices, and weak demand despite a slight decline in inventory. The basis is bullish, inventory is neutral, and the disk is bullish [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On March 11, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,160 (up 110 from March 10), the LME Nickel was 17,720 (up 175), the stainless - steel main contract was 14,215 (down 10). The nickel index was 138,100 (up 1300), and the cold - rolled index was 13,791 (up 49) [9]. - Spot Prices: SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 139,750 (down 1850), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 143,200 (down 1800), 1 imported nickel was 136,400 (down 1800), and nickel beans were 139,000 (down 1800). Cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, and Hangzhou remained at 15,100, and in Shanghai it was 15,150, all unchanged from March 10 [9]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 6, the SHFE nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with futures inventory at 53,568 tons, an increase of 978 tons and 437 tons respectively. On March 11, LME nickel inventory was 286,248 (down 840 from March 10), nickel warehouse receipts were 54,341 (down 309), and total inventory was 340,589 (down 1149) [11][12]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 6, Wuxi inventory was 618,600 tons, Foshan inventory was 398,300 tons, and national inventory was 1,150,000 tons, a decrease of 22,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 716,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons. On March 11, stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 51,414 (down 241 from March 10) [16][17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - Red soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 dollars/wet ton, (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 dollars/wet ton, both unchanged from March 10. High - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1091.32 yuan/nickel point (up 3.8), and low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3750 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. Stainless - Steel Production Costs - The traditional cost was 14,167, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,294, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 17,911 [21]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 138,367 yuan/ton [24].