大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views 2.1. Daily Views on Coking Coal - The supply in the coking coal market is continuously in a loose state, with the production of main - producing area coal mines having returned to normal levels. The trading activity in the market has increased after the recent rapid rise in the futures market, but some quotes have followed the adjustment as the market fluctuates. The downstream demand is unstable, and the downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain a rational attitude towards raw material demand and procurement, mainly purchasing on - demand. The acceptance of high - priced coal by coking and steel enterprises is not high, and some coal types with relatively high prices continue to make up for the decline. It is expected that the coking coal price will be weakly stable in the short term [3][4]. 2.2. Daily Views on Coke - After the first round of coke price reduction, the profit of coking enterprises has further shrunk, and the overall profit - concession space is limited. The coking enterprises' willingness to increase production is not high, and they mostly maintain normal production. The inventory accumulation pressure of coking enterprises still exists, and the coke supply continues to be in a loose situation. Although there are still positive expectations in the macro - aspect due to the important domestic meetings, considering the slowdown of the terminal finished product inventory removal speed, the good performance of steel mills' raw material inventory, and the slow decline of raw coal prices, the cost support of coke is weakened. It is expected that coke will remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price - Coking Coal: On March 11 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with prices ranging from 1020 to 1650. For example, the price of Russian main coking coal K4 at Caofeidian Port is 1330, and the price of Australian main coking coal Gongyela at Caofeidian Port is 1650 [10]. - Coke: On March 11 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of different grades of coke from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia at different ports range from 1370 to 1885. For example, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Rizhao Port is 1470, and the price of first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Rizhao Port (dry - quenched) is 1670 [11]. 3.2. Inventory - Coking Coal: The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1971 tons, including 820 tons in steel mills, 258 tons in ports, and 893 tons in independent coking enterprises, a decrease of 243 tons compared with last week [3]. - Coke: The total sample inventory of coke is 944 tons, including 689 tons in steel mills, 199 tons in ports, and 56 tons in independent coking enterprises, a decrease of 3 tons compared with last week [7]. 3.3. Specific Inventory Changes - Port Inventory: The coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, remaining the same as last week; the coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons compared with last week [21]. - Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared with last week; the coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons compared with last week [25]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons compared with last week; the coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons compared with last week [30]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Prices - Coking Coal - Positive Factors: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [6]. - Negative Factors: The slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [6]. - Coke - Positive Factors: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Negative Factors: The squeeze on steel mills' profit space and the partial over - consumption of restocking demand [9].