大越期货菜粕早报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2440 and 2500. The market is affected by factors such as the trend of soybean meal, the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, and the seasonal demand of rapeseed meal. After the digestion of overall negative factors, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 oscillates between 2440 and 2500. The fundamentals are affected by soybean meal trends, China - Canada trade relations, and seasonal demand. The basis shows a premium, the inventory is at a low level, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main - force long positions are decreasing with capital outflow. The overall situation is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern after the digestion of negative factors [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the seasonal off - season, with short - term supply remaining tight and demand suppressing the market. The export of Canadian rapeseed to China has returned to normal, and the import volume is gradually increasing. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved China - Canada trade relations, and tariffs are being gradually removed. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the Middle East situation is tense, which may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand expectation for rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival in China and no pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal inventory. Bearish factors: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the resumption of rapeseed imports from Canada. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Trading Data: From March 3rd to 11th, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal also changed. For example, on March 11th, the average trading price of soybean meal was 3390, the trading volume was 39.9 million tons, the average trading price of rapeseed meal was 2490, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal was 900 [13]. - Price Data: From March 4th to 11th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605 and far - month contract 2609) and spot prices (in Fujian) changed. For example, on March 11th, the price of the main contract 2605 was 2480, the far - month contract 2609 was 2470, and the spot price was 2490 [15]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: From March 3rd to 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts changed. For example, on March 10th, the warehouse receipts increased by 900 to 2311 [17]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 to 2025 show the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators over the years [19][21]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2440 and 2500. The market is affected by multiple factors, and attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [9].