工业硅期货早报-20260312

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply increased last week, with a weekly supply of 72,000 tons, a 4.35% increase from the previous week. Demand also increased, with a weekly demand of 65,000 tons, a 6.56% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, while organic silicon inventory is at a low level. The comprehensive operating rate of organic silicon is 65.4%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is at a high level, and the import is at a loss. The cost in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, and the cost support has increased during the dry season. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Social inventory has decreased, and the main ports' inventory has also decreased. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract futures price is above the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions have decreased. It is expected that the supply schedule will increase, the demand will recover, the cost support will increase, and the industrial silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,535 - 8,705 [3][6]. Polysilicon - Last week's production decreased by 5.05% week - on - week, but the March production schedule is expected to increase by 10.25% compared to the previous month. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March is expected to increase compared to the previous month. Currently, silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss state, while component production is profitable. The cost is stable, and the production profit is 5,280 yuan/ton. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The weekly inventory is at a high level and has increased by 1.16% week - on - week. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract futures price is below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions have increased. It is expected that the supply schedule will increase in the short - term and回调 in the medium - term, the demand will show a continuous decline, the cost support will remain stable, and the polysilicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 41,595 - 43,590 [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Daily Views - Industrial Silicon: In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand both increased last week. The cost support in Xinjiang decreased slightly, and the cost support during the dry season increased. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Social and main ports' inventories decreased. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract futures price is above the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions decreased. It is expected that the supply schedule will increase, the demand will recover, and the cost support will increase [3][6]. - Polysilicon: Supply decreased last week, but the March production schedule is expected to increase. The production of downstream products in March is expected to increase. Currently, silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss state, while component production is profitable. The cost is stable, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The inventory is at a high level and has increased. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract futures price is below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased. It is expected that the supply schedule will increase in the short - term and回调 in the medium - term, and the demand will decline [7][8]. Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: The prices of most contracts increased slightly, and the spot prices remained stable. The social inventory decreased by 1.25% week - on - week, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 3.31%. The main ports' inventory decreased by 2.17%. The production of sample enterprises increased by 9.63% week - on - week [13]. - Polysilicon: The prices of some contracts increased. The production of silicon wafers increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and the inventory decreased by 22.06%. The export of photovoltaic cells increased by 24.25%, and the monthly production decreased by 10.50%. The total inventory increased by 1.16% week - on - week [14]. Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - For industrial silicon, the SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 spread trends are presented, showing the price relationships between different products and time points [16][17]. Polysilicon Disk Price Trends - The PS main contract price, trading volume, and basis trends are shown, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price, as well as the moving averages of different periods [19][20]. Industrial Silicon Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and ports is presented, including the inventory of sample enterprises, which shows a downward trend in some regions [22][23][24]. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production by specifications are shown. The production in some regions has increased, and the overall capacity utilization rate has changed [26][27][28]. Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends - The price trends of main production areas' electricity, silicon stone, graphite electrodes, and some reducing agents are presented, which affect the cost of industrial silicon production [32][33]. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost trends of 421/553 in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang are shown, including the cost differences between different specifications [34][35][36][37]. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon are presented, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance in different periods [39][40][42][43]. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends: The DMC daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trends, weekly production trends, and price trends are presented [45][46]. - Downstream Price Trends: The price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are shown [47][48]. - Import - Export and Inventory Trends: The monthly import and export volumes and inventory trends of DMC are presented [50][51][52]. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation: The waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, China's unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price trend, and import ADC12 cost - profit trend are presented [53][54]. - Inventory and Production Trends: The monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots are shown [56][57]. - Demand (Automobile and Wheel Hub): The monthly production and sales volumes of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheel hubs are presented [58][59][60][61]. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Fundamental Trends: The cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand trends of polysilicon are presented [63][64]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of polysilicon is presented, showing the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance in different periods [66][67]. - Silicon Wafer Trends: The price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends of silicon wafers are presented [69][70]. - Silicon Wafer Supply - Demand Balance Trends: The supply - demand balance of silicon wafers is presented, showing the supply, demand, and balance in different periods [72][73]. - Battery Cell Trends: The price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export trends of battery cells are presented [75][76]. - Photovoltaic Component Trends: The price, domestic and European inventories, monthly production, and export trends of photovoltaic components are presented [78][79]. - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends: The price trends of photovoltaic coatings, the import - export trends of photovoltaic films, the monthly production and export trends of photovoltaic glass, the price trends of high - purity quartz sand, and the import - export trends of welding strips are presented [81][82]. - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm): The cost and profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components are presented [84][85]. - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends: The trends of the country's new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation are presented [86][87].