大越期货豆粕早报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Views on Soybean Meal - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The US soybeans are in a short - term strong oscillation due to potential escalation of the Middle East situation and technical buying. The domestic soybean meal has entered a short - term strong oscillation pattern affected by the US soybean trend and short - term import restrictions caused by the Middle East conflict. However, factors such as the completion of China's purchase of US soybeans and good weather in South American soybean - producing areas will limit the upside of the soybean meal price [9]. 2.2. Views on Soybeans - The soybean A2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4780 - 4880. The US soybeans are in a short - term strong oscillation. The domestic soybeans are in a high - level oscillation, supported by reduced import expectations due to the Middle East conflict and short - term good demand, but restricted by factors such as the increase in China's purchase of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the content 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchase of US soybeans and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The short - term US soybean market is in a strong oscillation, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvesting, import soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continued to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level in March. The weather for soybean planting and growth in South America was relatively normal, and the soybean meal has returned to range oscillation in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remained low in March, suppressing the price expectations of soybean meal. The US soybean trend and weak demand for soybean meal have cross - effects [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained at a relatively high level. Due to the possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal is in a short - term strong oscillation, waiting for further clarity on the Middle East situation, determination of South American soybean production, and further guidance on the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3. Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Likely positives: The preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Likely negatives: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in March remained at a relatively high level; the harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Likely positives: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectations of domestic soybeans [15]. - Likely negatives: Brazilian soybeans have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses the price expectations of beans [15]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal trading data: From March 3 to March 11, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed certain fluctuations [16]. - Soybean and soybean meal price data: From March 4 to March 11, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an upward trend, and the spot price of soybean meal was in a state of premium to the futures price [18]. - Soybean and meal warehouse receipt statistics: From March 2 to March 11, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, and soybean meal changed to different degrees [20]. - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets: The report provides the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - Soybean planting and harvesting progress: The report provides the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the United States, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026, including data on planting rate, harvesting rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, etc. [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA's semi - annual monthly supply - demand report: From July 2025 to February 2026, the report provides data on the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean export, and crushing of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 3.5. Position Data - Not provided in the content