大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's production at 22,590 tons, a 3.51% week-on-week increase and higher than the historical average. The demand side shows an increase in the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. The cost side has different profit and loss situations for different raw materials, with the cost of salt lake end significantly lower than that of the ore end. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 150,380 - 161,780. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and negative factors including the high supply of ore/salt lake end with limited decline [8]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight balance of supply and demand [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Supply side: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 22,590 tons, a 3.51% week-on-week increase and higher than the historical average. Demand side: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased by 8.61% and 3.35% respectively. Cost side: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 157,782 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 316.88%, resulting in a loss of -855 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 153,505 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.89%, resulting in a profit of 21 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On March 11, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,960 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of smelters was 17,476 tons, a 4.92% week-on-week decrease and lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 43,757 tons, a 9.34% week-on-week increase and higher than the historical average; other inventories were 38,140 tons, an 8.51% week-on-week decrease and lower than the historical average; the total inventory was 99,373 tons, a 0.71% week-on-week decrease and lower than the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - Expectation: In February 2026, the production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month-on-month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month-on-month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase, lower than the historical average, and the demand-led situation is weakening. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 150,380 - 161,780 [8]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Yesterday's Market Overview: The prices of various lithium compounds and related products showed different changes, including the prices of lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries [14]. - Supply and Demand Data Overview: The supply side shows a decrease in the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, a decrease in the import volume of lithium concentrate, and an increase in the import volume of lithium carbonate. The demand side shows a decrease in the monthly production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium, and a decrease in the monthly production and loading volume of power batteries [17]. 3.3 Lithium Ore Supply - Lithium Ore Price and Production: The price of lithium ore shows a long - term trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines in China has different trends in different years [24]. - Lithium Ore Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate shows fluctuations, with a significant decrease in the import volume from Australia [17][24]. - Lithium Ore Self - Sufficiency Rate: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore shows different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [24]. - Lithium Ore Inventory: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore shows fluctuations in different years [24]. 3.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Lithium Carbonate Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate show different trends, with different production contributions from different raw materials [31]. - Lithium Carbonate Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate shows fluctuations, with different import sources including Chile, Argentina, etc. [33]. - Recycling of Waste Lithium Batteries: The monthly recycling volume of waste lithium batteries shows trends, including the recycling of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [36]. 3.5 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - Lithium Hydroxide Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide show different trends, with different production contributions from the causticization and smelting ends [41]. - Lithium Hydroxide Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide shows trends in different years [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Purchased Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica: The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene and lithium mica show long - term trends, with different cost compositions [48]. - Cost and Profit of Recycling Lithium Carbonate: The cost and profit of recycling lithium carbonate from different types of black powder show trends [51]. - Profit of Lithium Carbonate Purification and Carbonation: The profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate and carbonating lithium hydroxide shows trends [51][54]. - Profit of Lithium Hydroxide Processing and Export: The profit of processing lithium hydroxide and exporting it shows trends [54]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate shows trends, including the inventory of smelters, downstream, and other sources [57]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide shows trends, including the inventory of smelters and downstream [57]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - Battery Price and Production: The price of power batteries shows trends, and the monthly production of power battery cells shows different trends for ternary and lithium iron phosphate [59]. - Battery Loading and Shipment: The monthly loading volume and shipment volume of power batteries show trends, including the contributions of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [59]. - Lithium Battery Export: The export volume of lithium batteries shows trends in different years [59]. 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - Energy Storage Battery Inventory and Bid: The inventory of energy storage battery cells shows trends, and the EPC bid price of energy storage systems shows trends [61]. - Energy Storage Battery Production and Shipment: The monthly production and shipment volume of energy storage battery cells show trends, including the contributions of different application scenarios [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Ternary Precursor Price and Cost: The price of ternary precursors shows trends, and the cost and profit of ternary precursors show trends [64]. - Ternary Precursor Capacity and Production: The capacity and monthly production of ternary precursors show trends, including different types such as 333, 523, 622, 811, and NCA [64]. - Ternary Precursor Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows trends, with different values of production, import, demand, export, and balance [67]. 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - Ternary Material Price and Cost: The price of ternary materials shows trends, and the cost and profit of ternary materials show trends [70]. - Ternary Material Production and Inventory: The monthly production and weekly inventory of ternary materials show trends, including different types such as NCA, 3 - series, 5 - series, 6 - series, and 8 - series [70][72]. 3.12 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium Price and Cost: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium shows trends, and the cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium show trends [74]. - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium Production and Export: The monthly production and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium show trends [77]. - Iron Phosphate Lithium Inventory: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium shows trends [79]. 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles show trends, including plug - in hybrid and pure - electric vehicles [82]. - New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate and Inventory Index: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles shows trends, and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers show trends [83][86].