大越期货原油早报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The IEA's release of 4 billion barrels of oil aims to curb the soaring oil prices caused by the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. Although the short - term negative news is exhausted, the war situation continues, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, so crude oil still has upward potential. SC2604 should be operated with a long - bias in the range of 730 - 760, and long - term investors can wait for opportunities to short at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The IEA released 4 billion barrels of oil. Three ships in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked, and the total number of attacked ships reached at least 14. OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day this year, with its demand estimate for 2026 higher than other institutions [3]. - Basis: On March 11, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $119.71 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $84.34 per barrel. The basis was 31.37 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.678 million barrels in the week ending March 6, while the EIA inventory increased by 3.824 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.117 million barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.511 million barrels as of March 11 [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - Main Position: As of March 3, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil main contracts decreased [3]. - Expectation: The IEA's release of 4 billion barrels of oil was beyond expectations. After the short - term negative news was exhausted, the oil price showed a V - shaped trend. The war situation continued, so crude oil still has upward potential. SC2604 should be operated with a long - bias in the range of 730 - 760, and long - term investors can wait for opportunities to short at high prices [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Cease - fire requirements: Iran requires the US to ensure that it and Israel will not attack Iran in the future. The US military operations against Iran continue [5]. - Oil tanker attacks: Two oil tankers in the northern Gulf near Iraq and Kuwait were attacked, causing concerns about shipping safety and a sharp rise in international oil prices [5]. - IEA oil release: The IEA agreed to release 4 billion barrels of oil. The US will release 172 million barrels, Japan about 80 million barrels, South Korea 22.46 million barrels, and Germany will release part of its oil reserves [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Strait passage is blocked; the Middle East situation deteriorates [6]. - Bearish factors: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6]. - Market driver: In the short term, focus on geopolitical changes; in the medium - to - long term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for reverse operations [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, and Oman crude oil increased, while that of SC crude oil decreased. The increases of Brent, WTI, and Oman crude oil were 4.76%, 4.55%, and 3.38% respectively, and the decrease of SC crude oil was 11.36% [7]. - Spot market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, and Dubai crude oil increased, while that of Shengli crude oil decreased. The increases were 3.87%, 4.55%, 3.84%, and 3.55% respectively, and the decrease was 3.77% [9]. - Inventory data: The API inventory decreased by 1.678 million barrels in the week ending March 6, and the EIA inventory increased by 3.824 million barrels [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI crude oil: As of March 3, the net long position decreased by 562 [15]. - Brent crude oil: As of March 3, the net long position decreased by 35,358 [17].