瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260312

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber产区 is in the seasonal supply off - season with firm raw material prices. Recently, bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate inventory, while general trade warehouses reduced inventory, resulting in a slight overall increase in inventory. - Overseas has entered the seasonal low - production season, the arrival of US - dollar standard rubber at the port is decreasing, synthetic rubber is strengthening, and after the Spring Festival, tire enterprises resumed production, leading to an increase in natural rubber buying and an increase in the outbound volume of Qingdao Port warehouses, with a significantly narrowed inventory accumulation compared to the previous period. - This week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly, and the current production scheduling of each tire enterprise has basically returned to the normal level, supporting the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. The internal and external sales of semi - steel tire enterprises are relatively stable, with relatively average overall shipment performance, while the domestic sales of all - steel tire enterprises are active, and the inventory reduction rhythm has accelerated. - Due to the uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, there are still export resistances in some regions for tire enterprises, and there is an expectation of a slight decline. Enterprises will flexibly adjust the production scheduling ratio of internal and external sales according to their own order situations. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,850 - 17,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 13,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton; the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton. - The price difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 141,956 lots, a decrease of 1,654 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 68,133 lots, an increase of 719 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 44,771 lots, a decrease of 3,299 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,101 lots, a decrease of 1,029 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 120,540 tons, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 49,795 tons, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 17,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,055 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,050 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 15,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,038 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 318 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 72.4 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.51 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) was 67.85 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.15 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 70.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.4 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, an increase of 94,100 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.9%, an increase of 36.73 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.03%, an increase of 39.47 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.79 days, a decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 43.1 days, a decrease of 0.99 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.75%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.65%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.44%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.03%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline of the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month. - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, a growth rate of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, a growth rate of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points. [2]