瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term supply of synthetic rubber is expected to decrease, leading to a decline in inventory. The demand side shows that the tire enterprise's operating rate has rebounded, but there are uncertainties in exports due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The short - term synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 15,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 23,930, a decrease of 2,390. The synthetic rubber 4 - 5 spread is 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 21,430 tons, an increase of 10 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 14,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 865 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 91.98 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.18 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 87.25 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.8 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 970 US dollars/ton, with no change. The CFR Japan price of naphtha is 875.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 33.75 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price of butadiene is 1800 US dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 14,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The current - week value of butadiene production capacity is 159,300 tons/week, a decrease of 100 tons/week; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 76.28%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 39,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation is 54.81%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points. The monthly production of butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 81.62%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The current - week production profit of butadiene rubber is - 1,424 yuan/ton, a decrease of 965 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 34,400 tons, a decrease of 10,750 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 9,020 tons, an increase of 700 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.03%, an increase of 39.47 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.9%, an increase of 36.73 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 45.79 days, a decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.1 days, a decrease of 0.99 days. As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - Domestic tire enterprises' production schedules have basically returned to normal levels, supporting the overall sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate. However, due to the uncertainties of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, there are still export resistances in some regions, and there is a possibility of a slight decline. In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 44,400 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.33% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]