瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the I2605 contract remained strong. The supply and demand situation shows that the shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased, and the iron ore port inventory continued to rise. With the end of the Two Sessions, the expected increase in hot metal production boosts the spot demand for iron ore. Additionally, the stable rebound of international oil prices will drive up freight rates again, providing support for the iron ore price. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0-axis, with a stable red bar. The reference view is that the market is oscillating with a bullish bias, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 795.50 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan; the position volume was 480,735 lots, up 5,766 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 29 yuan/ton, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was -37,117 lots, up 5,083 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,200 lots, up 300 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 107.1 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 2.95 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 834 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore was 821 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 729 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 26 yuan, down 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 105.10 US dollars/ton, up 0.25 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.19, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 834 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 2,897.80 million tons, down 442.90 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,697.50 million tons, up 467.50 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,894.83 million tons, up 3.53 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,011.57 million tons, down 73.53 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,965.00 million tons, up 2,201.21 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 21 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.60 million tons, up 1.48 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 60.90%, up 1.87 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 50.17 million tons, up 8.45 million tons. The BDI index was 1,926.00, up 7.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 27.95 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 11.67 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 77.69%, down 2.55 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.30%, down 2.18 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.83%, up 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.93%, down 1.89 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 25.48%, up 4.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 24.61%, up 1.82 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed to China, with four ship rerouting events reported. Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber was 2,742.38 million tons, a decrease of 88.58 million tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 101.66 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 26.98, a decrease of 0.41 compared with the previous period [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The domestic iron ore port inventory, steel mill blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization rate on Friday [2]