瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the urea production decreased slightly as two shut - down plants resumed production and the previous period's plant changes continued [2] - The high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants increased, leading to more industrial consumption of urea. Next week, the restart or increased load of plants in Hebei is expected to further raise the operating rate [2] - Recently, the international geopolitical conflict has spurred market trading sentiment, increasing the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, which has promoted the smooth shipment of urea factories. The total inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased this week, and the short - term trend is expected to continue destocking [2] - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has pushed international prices to a high level. Affected by market sentiment, the domestic urea market fluctuates strongly, but factory quotes are stable due to the guidance price. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1950 in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 1875 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] - The trading volume of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 223,691 lots, down 6,014 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 44,299 lots, down 2,433 lots [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts was 6,380, up 947 [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1880 yuan/ton, 1860 yuan/ton, 1890 yuan/ton, 1890 yuan/ton, and 1890 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] - The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract was 18 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2] - The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports were 492.5 US dollars/ton and 565 US dollars/ton respectively, both unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory was 190,000 tons, up 16,000 tons; the enterprise inventory was 957,600 tons, down 140,500 tons [2] - The operating rate of urea enterprises was 93.31%, up 0.15%; the daily urea output was 219,700 tons, up 300 tons [2] - The urea export volume was 280,000 tons, down 32%; the monthly urea output was 6,289,610 tons, up 271,170 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 37.02%, up 3.61%; the operating rate of melamine was 49.45%, down 6.46% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 209 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was - 248 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 5,179,900 tons, up 184,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 25,700 tons, down 3,400 tons [2] Industry News - As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,600 tons, down 140,500 tons from the previous period, a 12.79% decrease [2] - As of March 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 189,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.53% decrease [2] - As of March 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,537,600 tons, down 300 tons from the previous period, a 0.02% decrease; the capacity utilization rate was 93.29%, down 0.02% [2] Suggestion to Pay Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]