瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the HC2605 contract rose and then pulled back. Macroscopically, US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran and the US military action against Iran was "coming to an end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received any internal instructions to stop the military action. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to around 75%; terminal demand rebounded and inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the decline in hot-rolled coil output alleviated the supply pressure, but the trading atmosphere in the spot market was cautious, and tariff disturbances reappeared. The chaotic situation between the US and Iran affected market sentiment. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0-axis. It is suggested that the short-term market may be sorted out in the range of 3300 - 3240, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,275 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 1,243,723 lots, down 21,377 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -5,691 lots, down 8,482 lots; the spread between the HC5 - 10 contracts was -9 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily warehouse receipt of HC on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 478,483 tons, down 2,649 tons; the spread between HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 155 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 15 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 10 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan; the market price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax-excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.2272 million tons, up 264,100 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 630,300 tons, up 4,400 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.7153 million tons, down 35,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 2.4051 million tons, up 78,600 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 77.69%, down 2.55 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.3%, down 2.18 percentage points. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 2.9526 million tons, down 58,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 75.43%, down 1.49 percentage points. The inventory of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 892,800 tons, down 8,000 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.8231 million tons, up 7,000 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.78 million tons, up 3.3111 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 1.672 million vehicles, down 777,900 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles was 1.805 million vehicles, down 541,500 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran and the US military action against Iran was "coming to an end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received any internal instructions to stop the military action. Since the Middle East conflict has continued to intensify, the export production plan of household air conditioners has been significantly reduced compared with the previous plan. Overseas customers have cancelled or postponed orders due to rising freight rates or war surcharges imposed by shipping companies, with a projected reduction of over 500,000 units in March [2].