铂钯金期货日报-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The February CPI in the US basically met market expectations, but the strengthening US dollar still exerted strong pressure on the precious metals market [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, the long - term supply shortage logic for platinum remains solid. In 2026, global platinum supply is expected to increase slightly, and total demand will rise to 237 tons, with a market shortage of about 7 tons for the fourth consecutive year, and the depletion of above - ground inventory supports platinum prices [2]. - Palladium has a weak medium - term fundamental outlook. It is highly dependent on gasoline vehicle catalysts and faces dual pressures from the increasing penetration of electric vehicles and the accelerating substitution of platinum [2]. - In the short term, if crude oil prices continue to rise, platinum and palladium may continue to be under pressure. In the medium term, there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, and the subsequent trend of US inflation data needs to be observed. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading for now [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 564.65 yuan/gram, down 5.35 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 416.60 yuan/gram, down 8.85 yuan [2]. - The main contract position of platinum was 10,387 hands, down 277 hands; the main contract position of palladium was 3,179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 553.23 yuan/gram, down 3.85 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 388.00 yuan/gram, down 11.00 yuan [2]. - The basis of the platinum main contract was - 11.42 yuan/gram, up 1.50 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 28.60 yuan/gram, down 2.15 yuan [2]. Supply and Demand - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) were 9,966 contracts, down 243 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) were 3,003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. - The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 99.20, up 0.27; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.85%, up 0.03% [2]. - The VIX volatility index was 24.23, down 0.70 [2]. Industry News - US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran, and the US military action against Iran was "coming to an end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received internal instructions to stop the military action [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the risk of energy supply disruption caused by the Iran war, which was the largest coordinated release in the agency's history [2]. - The latest US inflation data showed that in February, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, all in line with market expectations. However, the February data did not reflect the impact of the soaring oil prices caused by the Iran situation, and more data were needed to determine when the Fed would cut interest rates again [2]. - The US Treasury data showed that the US government budget deficit in February 2026 was $308 billion. The budget deficit from the beginning of the current fiscal year to February had exceeded $1 trillion, but was far lower than the same period last year. The total budget deficit so far this fiscal year was $1.004 trillion, a decrease of about 12% compared with the same period in 2025 due to faster growth in government revenue than expenditure [2]. Key Points to Watch - On March 13 at 20:30, the US January core PCE price index; on March 13 at 22:00, the US January durable goods orders [2]