瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of both supply and demand increase. It's suggested to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of both supply and demand increase, with seasonal accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory. It's recommended to trade with a light position by buying short on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of both supply and demand increase, with downstream purchasing意愿 driving industrial inventory reduction. It's advised to trade with a light position by buying short on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 25,240 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures is 2,865 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum is - 130 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina is - 35 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 3,457 US dollars/ton, up 57 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 450,125 tons, down 2,250 tons [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy is 23,990 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 55,360 tons, down 540 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 25,260 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 25,100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 26.51 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,110 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 20 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 19,000 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 18,400 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan [2] - The export volume of alumina is 21 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import volume of alumina is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 42.96 million tons, down 11.04 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The production of aluminum alloy is 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 23.39%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 32.60%, unchanged [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum is 28.7%, up 0.0070; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.70, down 0.1340 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In February, automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales also decreased year - on - year [2] - The China Development Forum 2026 will be held in Beijing from March 22nd to 23rd [2] - The latest US inflation data in February met market expectations, but the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iranian situation was not reflected [2] - G7 leaders discussed the Middle East situation and its economic impact [2] - The energy price surge caused by the Iranian war is reshaping the European Central Bank's policy expectations [2]