每日商品期市纵览-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East. Different sectors show various trends and uncertainties. Some commodities are influenced by supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and policy expectations, and short - term market volatility is high, with different trading logics in each sector [1][2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - Stock index futures: The impact of external uncertainties is weakening, the trading logic returns to the domestic market. The market lacks a main line after the geopolitical conflict, the basis discount of index futures deepens, and the sentiment is not fully repaired. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, waiting for more favorable policy signals after the Two Sessions [2]. - Treasury bond futures: The impact of the Middle East situation on the market is weakening, the rebound of the A - share market is weakening, and treasury bond futures are in a shrinking and volatile state. The capital side is marginally tightened, and the value of treasury bond futures rises after the decline. Attention should be paid to whether the February monetary and financial data can bring driving forces [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum and palladium: The US February CPI meets expectations, but the Iran conflict reduces the reference value of this data. The US - Iran conflict is in a state of game between political expectations and actual actions. The long - term upward basis still exists, but short - term inflation concerns may lead to selling pressure [3]. - Gold and silver: The Middle East situation causes concerns about the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up crude oil prices, suppressing interest rate cut expectations. The US dollar index and US bond yields are rising, suppressing precious metal prices. Precious metals continue to be in an oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Copper: On the supply side, copper concentrate TC is at a low level, and raw materials are tight. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and the spot discount slightly expands. The market is affected by supply - demand rhythm differences, inventory patterns, and macro - sentiment, with increased price volatility [4]. - Aluminum: The US February inflation data meets expectations, and March inflation may rise due to the oil price increase caused by the Middle East war. The short - term price trend is dominated by the war situation [4]. - Alumina: Driven by aluminum and crude oil, the price fluctuation significantly expands. The short - term spot price rebounds, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the release of new production capacities in March [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It strongly follows the price trend of Shanghai aluminum. Due to the tight raw materials and the impact of the illegal tax refund policy, there is strong support at the lower price [6]. - Zinc: On the supply side, the Iran situation may affect the supply of zinc concentrates, and the increase in energy costs may lead to a decline in the resumption of production of overseas smelters. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The short - term metal price may be suppressed [6]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The supply fluctuation of Indonesian wet - process production lines affects market sentiment. There may be a substantial production reduction in April. The downstream purchasing sentiment is rising, and the release rhythm of stainless steel demand needs to be observed [7]. - Tin: The Iran situation continues to ferment. On the supply side, it remains tight. On the demand side, enterprises are starting to resume work, and the inventory is high. The price is suppressed under the high inventory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [7]. - Lithium carbonate: In the short term, the Middle East situation is unclear, and the downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged, providing long - term support for the price. Attention should be paid to the actual production and inventory reduction speed in March [8]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon: The industry is still at the bottom of the current production capacity cycle, waiting for the clearance of production capacity and the improvement of the supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and the marginal optimization signals of the supply - demand structure [8]. - Lead: The current supply - demand situation is weak. In March, the production is expected to pick up, and the spot market maintains a discount. The lead price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week and the implementation of secondary lead delivery [9][10]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The Iran geopolitical conflict causes the sharp rise of crude oil and the energy - chemical sector, which spills over to the coal sector, pushing up the price of coking coal and the shipping cost of iron ore. The high inventory of hot - rolled coils and high warehouse receipts suppress the price, and steel mill profits may continue to decline [11]. - Iron ore: The freight rates of core routes are firm, increasing the expected arrivals in the Far East. The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the upside space of iron ore is limited [11]. - Coking coal and coke: From March to April, it is the verification period of terminal demand. Considering the late Spring Festival this year, the post - festival resumption of work may be slow. The black series as a whole may face greater downward pressure, and the price elasticity of coking coal and coke is restricted [12]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese: In the short term, the cost support at the lower price is gradually strengthening, but the weak terminal demand for steel and the high inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils limit the upward space [13]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The market focuses on the Middle East situation. The release of 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves by the IEA cannot make up for the interruption of crude oil exports, and the inventory in the Gulf region is tight. The navigation situation is the key concern [14]. - Fuel oil: The supply constraints continue to support the fuel oil market, and the short - term strong market pattern is difficult to change [15]. - Asphalt: On the supply side, refineries are expected to reduce their loads. After the holiday, both factory and social inventories show seasonal accumulation. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are the core factor affecting the price [15]. - LPG: Driven by crude oil, it opens higher. The operating rates of main and independent refineries increase, and the domestic liquefied gas sales and arrivals decrease. The market is affected by the game of the US - Iran conflict, focusing on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [16]. - Methanol: The escalation of geopolitical conflicts changes the import expectations of the 05 contract. The MTO profit expands, and methanol may catch up with the increase of olefins [16]. - Plastics: The news of petrochemical plants' planned load reduction promotes the strength of polyolefins. The upstream raw material and PE imports are difficult to resume in the short term. The short - term supply pressure is limited [17]. - Rubber: Synthetic rubber is driven by crude oil price fluctuations, supporting the valuation of natural rubber. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the increase in energy costs are negative for demand. The social inventory of natural rubber slightly decreases, and the downstream resumes work, driving rigid - demand purchases [17]. - Soda ash: Supply - side maintenance may gradually increase, affecting production. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the long - term supply is expected to be at a high level [18]. - Glass: The cold repair of float glass continues, and the daily melting volume continues to decline. The high inventory in the middle reaches and the expected return of supply limit the price increase. The demand needs to be verified, and it may also be affected by macro and sentiment factors [19]. - Caustic soda: On the supply side, the load of chlor - alkali plants is slowly recovering, and the inventory pressure is not significantly relieved. On the demand side, the alumina industry is operating stably, and non - aluminum downstream industries are recovering well after the holiday. The market sentiment is strong, and the spot market trading is stable [20]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The current pig market is mainly trading the reality of weak post - Spring Festival demand. The decline of pig prices is supported by the second - fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak due to insufficient demand [21]. - Oilseeds: There are still expectations for China - US negotiations in April. The international fertilizer price soars under geopolitical disturbances, and the planting cost is expected to rise, supporting the price of US soybeans. The domestic market will be relatively strong before the state - owned reserve release [21]. - Oils: The oil market rebounds following the crude oil market. Policies in Indonesia and the US are favorable to the oil market. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation and the US bio - fuel policy review results next week [22]. - Cotton: The current expectation of tight supply - demand in the domestic market supports the cotton price, but the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference and the repeated geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are negative factors [23]. - Eggs: The concentrated release of demand promotes the price to rise steadily. The supply - side inventory pressure and the off - season background limit the upward space, and the price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [23]. - Red dates: The market currently focuses on the demand side. After the Spring Festival, the downstream sales are average, and the restocking is light. The price may maintain low - level volatility under the overall loose domestic supply - demand [24].