瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2605 contract rose and then pulled back. The US will initiate a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners including China. The weekly output of rebar continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 42.82%. Terminal demand also increased, and the inventory increase narrowed. Overall, downstream demand increased significantly, but tariff disruptions resurfaced, and the chaotic situation between the US and Iran affected market sentiment. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0-axis, with the red bar shrinking. It is expected to be range-bound between 3100 - 3150 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,120.00 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - RB main contract position: 1,676,246 lots, down 46,176 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net position: -6,547 lots, up 1,689 lots [2] - RB5 - 10 contract spread: -29 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 40,503 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 155 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,280.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,364 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - RB main contract basis: 160.00 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 60.8% PB iron ore fines: 780.00 yuan/wet ton, up 5.00 yuan [2] - Tianjin Port first-grade metallurgical coke (FOB price): 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax-excluded): 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2] - 45-port iron ore inventory: 17,122.72 million tons, up 26.41 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 63.03 million tons, up 0.44 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 671.53 million tons, down 3.53 million tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 240.51 million tons, up 7.86 million tons [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 77.69%, down 2.55% [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 85.30%, down 2.18% [2] - Sample steel mill rebar output: 195.30 million tons, up 21.99 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 42.82%, up 4.83% [2] - Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 239.62 million tons, up 1.69 million tons [2] - 35-city rebar social inventory: 654.55 million tons, up 16.80 million tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 35.42%, up 23.96% [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] - Chinese rebar monthly output: 1,375 million tons, up 19 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 1,078.00 million tons, up 331.11 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment: -3.80%, down 1.20% [2] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment: -17.20%, down 1.30% [2] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment: -2.20%, down 1.10% [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 659,890 million square meters, down 3,824 million square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 58,770 million square meters, down 5,313 million square meters [2] - Commercial housing unsold area: 40,236.00 million square meters, down 875.00 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - On March 12, Mysteel information showed that the actual rebar output this period was 195.3 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 21.99 million tons; the mill inventory was 239.62 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.69 million tons; the social inventory was 654.55 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16.8 million tons; the total inventory was 894.17 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 18.49 million tons; the apparent demand was 176.81 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 78.58 million tons [2] - At 3 pm on March 12, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Party and state leaders such as Xi Jinping attended the closing ceremony [2]