农产品早报-20260313

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn: After the Lantern Festival, market trade activities are gradually returning to normal. In the short term, the supply in the front - end trade link remains tight, and the concentrated release of restocking demand in the consumer end drives up the price. The current price fluctuation is dominated by short - term supply - demand mismatch. In the long term, with a supply gap in grain sources this year, focus on future import and domestic auction policies [2] - Starch: This week, the increase in raw material costs has led to an increase in starch quotes. In the short term, after the festival, enterprise production is resuming, and starch output is increasing, while downstream seasonal restocking is also driving inventory reduction. In the long term, the key factor for price trends is the change in downstream consumption rhythm [2] - Sugar: Internationally, the fundamentals are slightly strengthening, with India lowering its production estimate for the 25/26 sugar - making season and the ISO reducing the expected global surplus. Crude oil price increases may boost the price of raw sugar. Domestically, after the festival, the market is discussing import policies, and the futures are oscillating strongly. There is pressure on the futures from hedging due to large spot inventory [5] - Cotton: The relatively low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and favorable domestic consumption - promotion policies, as well as good export performance, cotton demand is expected to continue to improve. Also, the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term investment [6] - Eggs: The widening gap between the prices of culled chickens and white - feather chickens indicates a slowdown in the culling rhythm, which is likely due to farmers' active decision to delay culling, postponing the supply pressure. Feed costs have risen, compressing the profit margin of egg - laying chicken farming. Considering the basis structure of contracts 05 and 06, a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [9] - Apples: This week, the sales situation in apple - producing areas varies, with a stronger market in the west and a weaker one in the east. In the western regions, merchants are actively seeking high - quality apples, while in the eastern regions, the overall sales are average, and most transactions are for low - priced apples. In the sales areas, after the festival, the overall sales are stable, but the arrival volume is low and the sales speed has slowed down [14] - Pigs: The weekend spot market is weakly adjusting within a narrow range. The supply from large - scale farms is still abundant, and small - scale farms are resistant to low prices. Consumption is weak. With limited capacity reduction and pressure from off - season inventory, the medium - term price is under pressure, while there is support for a long - term turnaround. After the price decline, focus on the changes in the slaughter weight of breeding enterprises, the expectation of second - fattening, and the performance of frozen product storage. The futures are at a premium, and the price at a low level is easily affected by sentiment [14] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Corn price data is provided for different regions (Changchun, Jinzhou, Weifang, Shekou) from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in basis and trade profits. Starch price data is also provided for Heilongjiang and Weifang, with changes in basis and processing profits [1] Sugar - Sugar spot price, basis, import profit, and warehouse receipt data are provided for different regions (Liuzhou, Nanning, Kunming) from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in these indicators [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Cotton price data (3128, imported M - grade US cotton, CotlookA(FE)), import profit, warehouse receipt + forecast data, and cotton yarn price data (Vietnamese yarn, 32S spinning profit) are provided from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in relevant indicators [6] Eggs - Egg price data for different producing areas (Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Hubei), basis, and prices of substitute products (white - feather chicken, yellow - feather chicken, pigs) are provided from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in these indicators [8][9] Apples - Apple spot price data (Shandong 80 first - and second - grade, Shaanxi 70 common), inventory data (national, Shandong, Shaanxi), and basis data for different months (January, May, October) are provided from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in relevant indicators [13][14] Pigs - Pig price data for different producing areas (Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, Jiangsu Nantong) and basis data are provided from March 6 - 12, 2026, along with changes in these indicators [14]