芳烃橡胶早报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the absolute price and structure are greatly affected by conflicts, with high uncertainty. If the conflict persists, production cuts may gradually spread to the TA end; if the conflict ends, the valuation of TA itself is also expected to improve. In the context of high volatility, one can consider the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips [1]. - For MEG, in the case of the conflict continuing, the arrival of MEG is expected to decline rapidly. Coupled with the preventive load - reduction of some domestic devices, the short - term inventory removal speed will accelerate, while the long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, so short - term observation is recommended [8]. - For polyester staple fiber, the raw materials have strengthened significantly, and the downstream chasing sentiment is acceptable. The start - up is expected to continue to rise. The processing fee of staple fiber itself has been compressed to a relatively low level, but the load - increase is also continuing. The short - term driving force is not obvious. If the raw materials continue to be strong, production cuts may gradually increase. One can focus on the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips in the medium - to - long term [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Market Data: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the PTA spot price fluctuated, the PX processing margin and PTA processing fee also changed. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2605(-9). The Yisheng New Materials with a capacity of 3.6 million tons reduced its load [1]. - Industry Situation: The near - end TA maintenance and load - increase coexisted, the start - up rate increased month - on - month, the polyester load continued to rise, the inventory accumulated month - on - month, the basis strengthened, and the spot processing fee weakened month - on - month. Some domestic PX devices reduced their loads, overseas maintenance was implemented, PXN slightly expanded, the disproportionation and isomerization benefits weakened, and the US - Asia aromatics spread decreased month - on - month [1]. MEG - Market Data: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the MEG price, profit, and load showed certain changes. The basis of MEG spot was around 05(-90). The Shaanxi Coal with a capacity of 1.8 million tons had some capacity under maintenance [8]. - Industry Situation: Near - end domestic oil - based devices had both maintenance and load - reduction, coal - based devices had partial maintenance, the overall start - up rate declined, the arrival decreased but the port inventory still accumulated due to weak shipments. The expected arrival volume decreased this week, the basis strengthened significantly, and the benefits of coal - based and ethane - based production improved significantly [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Market Data: The spot price was around 8500, and the market basis was around 04 + 40. The near - end devices continued to restart, and the start - up rate rose to 84.6%. The production and sales during the holiday were weak but improved week - on - week, the inventory decreased month - on - month, and the spot processing fee shrank month - on - month [8]. - Industry Situation: On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end also increased, the raw material inventory increased, the finished product inventory decreased, and the benefits weakened month - on - month. After the raw materials strengthened significantly, the downstream chasing sentiment was acceptable, and the start - up was expected to continue to rise [8]. Natural Rubber - Market Data: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the prices of various types of natural rubber such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar Thai mixed rubber, etc. changed, and there were also changes in processing profits, spreads, etc. [8]. - Industry Situation: No overall industry situation description was provided in the text. Styrene and Related Products - Market Data: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the prices of styrene, pure benzene, and related products changed, and the production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS also showed different degrees of change [8]. - Industry Situation: No overall industry situation description was provided in the text.