大越期货棉花早报-20260313

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests a slightly bullish outlook for cotton. The analysis is based on various factors such as global and domestic supply - demand, market trends, and external factors. The 1 - 2 month textile exports were strong, it's entering the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and the reduction of US tariffs and the improvement of Sino - US relations are beneficial to textile exports [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review There is no information about the previous day review in the provided content. 3.2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: ICAC predicts global consumption of 25 million tons and production of 24.8 million tons in the 26/27 season. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by over 10%. USDA's March report shows a 25/26 annual production of 26.343 million tons, consumption of 25.817 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.631 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31%; cotton yarn imports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. The Ministry of Agriculture's March 25/26 annual forecast shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,848, and the basis is 1303 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's March 25/26 annual forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.29 million tons [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectation: The good textile exports from January to February, the arrival of the traditional peak season, the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations are all positive for textile exports. The cotton market is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 3.4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In the 25/26 season, the total global production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory among different countries [9][10]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 26/27 season, production is expected to be 24.8 million tons (a 4% decrease), consumption is 25 million tons (a 0.7% decrease), the ending inventory is 16.6 million tons (a 1% decrease), and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.4% (a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease) [11]. - China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture): In the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 3.5. Position Data There is no information about position data in the provided content.