大越期货天胶早报-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The spot market is strong, Qingdao's inventory is accumulating, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line. The main positions are net long and increasing. However, the natural rubber is entering a bearish season, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report is a natural rubber morning report dated March 13, 2026, from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] 2. Fundamental Data - Spot Price: The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on March 12. The spot price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is quoted in US dollars [8] - Inventory: The exchange inventory has changed little recently, while the inventory in Qingdao area is accumulating. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao area increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [14][17] - Import: The import volume has rebounded [20] - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales have declined, but tire production has increased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][29][32] 3. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices [6] - Likely to Fall: Bearish domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to rising crude oil prices [6] 4. Basis - The basis strengthened on March 12, with the spot price at 17350 and the basis at 275 [4][35]