大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the market saw the futures hit the daily limit and then fluctuate after opening, with a general trading atmosphere and wide - ranging fluctuations in spot basis. Given the ongoing war between the US and Iran, the wavering attitude of Trump, and the sharp rise in oil prices, PTA spot prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the cost side in the short term. Attention should be paid to subsequent cost - side and device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center rose and then fell on Thursday, with a significant weakening of the basis. Under the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the reduction of domestic oil - based devices will gradually be reflected. The short - term trend of MEG follows the macro - face and cost side, and attention should be paid to overseas situations and ship passage [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No information provided in the report 2.每日提示 - PTA: The spot price range was 6900 - 7150 yuan, and the mainstream spot basis was 05 - 22. The PTA factory inventory was 5.94 days, a decrease of 0.42 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions [5][6]. - MEG: The spot price reached as high as 4880 yuan/ton in the morning and closed at a discount of 90 - 95 yuan/ton to the 05 contract in the afternoon. The inventory in East China was 97.5 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The main position was net short with a decrease in short positions [7][8]. 3.今日关注 - Influencing factors: The 300 - million - ton Yihua plant was shut down for maintenance, which was a positive factor. Yisheng New Materials increased production to full capacity at 3.6 million tons, Dushan restarted at 2.5 million tons, Ineos restarted at 1.25 million tons, and Fuhai Chuang increased production, which were negative factors [9][10]. - PX supply - demand balance table: From September 2025 to June 2026, PX production, import volume, and demand showed different trends, and the balance with polyester also changed. For example, in September 2025, the balance was - 2.5 tons, while in June 2026, it was 30.6 tons [11]. - PTA supply - demand balance table: From October 2025 to September 2026, PTA production, consumption, and surplus/deficit showed different trends. For example, in October 2025, the surplus was 10.4 tons, while in April 2026, there was a deficit of 35 tons [12]. - MEG supply - demand balance table: From October 2025 to September 2026, MEG production, import, consumption, and surplus/deficit showed different trends. For example, in October 2025, the surplus was 11.7 tons, while in April 2026, there was a deficit of 11.8 tons [13]. - Price: On March 12, 2026, compared with March 11, 2026, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed. For example, the CCFEI price index of PTA increased from 6580 yuan/ton to 7025 yuan/ton [14]. 4.基本面数据 - Inventory analysis: PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory in East China, PET slice factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory showed different trends over time [42][44][46]. - Upstream and downstream开工率: The operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester, and textile enterprises in the polyester industry chain showed different trends over time [53][55][57]. - Profit: The processing fees of PTA, the production profits of MEG from different raw materials, and the production profits of polyester fibers showed different trends over time [58][61][63]