大越期货油脂早报-20260313

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating and the domestic fundamentals are loose with stable supply. The relationship between China and the US is tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventory [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Overall, it's neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8860, with a basis of 228, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It's bullish [2]. - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It's bearish [2]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It's bullish [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. It's bullish [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) will oscillate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It's neutral [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9700, with a basis of 16, indicating a slight premium of the spot price to the futures price. It's neutral [3]. - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous value, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It's bearish [3]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It's bullish [3]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. It's bearish [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil (P2605) will oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to the above two, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It's neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10300, with a basis of 531, indicating a significant premium of the spot price to the futures price. It's bullish [4]. - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous value, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It's bullish [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It's bullish [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased. It's bearish [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) will oscillate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil production season is approaching [5]. - Unlikely: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].