大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the report is that the Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile upward trend in the previous trading day, with increased trading volume. Long - positions slightly increased and short - positions decreased. The market may experience a short - term volatile consolidation. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, but short - term indicators like KDJ are declining, and the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing while the short - side strength is increasing, resulting in a stalemate between the two sides. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2604 is to expect a volatile consolidation [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons, which is considered bullish [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 24,320, and the basis is +20, which is considered neutral [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On March 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 150 tons to 98,750 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 4,622 tons to 85,695 tons, which is considered neutral [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile upward trend in the previous trading day, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is considered bearish [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main positions are net long, and the long - positions increased, which is considered bullish [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on March 12 - The report provides detailed quotes for zinc futures contracts from 2603 to 2702, including opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest and its changes [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on March 12 - For zinc concentrates, the domestic spot TC is 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC is 30 US dollars/ton. For 0 zinc ingots, the prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang are 24,320 yuan/ton, 24,300 yuan/ton, 24,350 yuan/ton, and 24,370 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of +20, +40, +20, and +20 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/3/2 - 2026/3/12) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 21.19 tons on March 2, 2026, to 23.11 tons on March 12, 2026 [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on March 12 - The report details the zinc warrants in different regions and warehouses, with a total increase of 4,622 tons to 85,695 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on March 12 - The report shows the inventory, inflow, outflow, registered warrants, cancelled warrants, and the proportion of cancelled warrants in different regions, with a total inventory of 98,750 tons and a decrease of 150 tons [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 12 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrates in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming are mostly 20,900 yuan/ton, with a price increase of +20 yuan/ton [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 12 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan, etc., all increased by +20 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The planned production in February was 468,700 tons, the actual production was 470,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.87%, and the planned production in March was 490,200 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on March 12 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% - grade in different regions range from 1,400 to 1,700 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee for 48% - grade is 30 US dollars/ton [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on March 12 - The report lists the trading volume, long - positions, and short - positions and their changes of the top 20 members, with a total trading volume of 169,703, a total long - position of 51,069, and a total short - position of 50,346 [17].