大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260313

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The external market price first declined and then rebounded, with the 20 - day moving average providing some support. Supply increased in March, domestic inventory continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. The nickel ore market had a strong bullish sentiment, with a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and a cold trading market in China due to cost inversion. The nickel - iron price continued to rebound, and the cost line was firm. The stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly, indicating weak demand. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, but there was a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The overall view was bearish. The basis was positive, the inventory was bearish, the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average with an upward trend, and the main position was net long but with a decrease in long positions. The conclusion was that Shanghai Nickel 2605 would fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless - steel price decreased. The short - term nickel ore price was firm, the demand in Indonesia was strong, the nickel - iron price rebounded, and the cost line had strong support. The stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The overall view was neutral. The basis was positive, the inventory was neutral, the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average with an upward trend. The conclusion was that Stainless Steel 2605 would have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - Futures: On March 12, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,160, up 110 from the previous day; the London Nickel was 17,765, up 45; the Stainless - Steel main contract was 14,215, down 10. The nickel index was 138,000, down 100; the cold - rolled index was 13,820, up 29 [9]. - Spot: On March 12, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,950, up 1,200; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 144,350, up 1,150; 1 imported nickel was 137,450, up 1,050; nickel beans were 140,050, up 1,050. Cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi was 15,100, unchanged; in Foshan was 15,000, down 100; in Hangzhou was 15,100, unchanged; in Shanghai was 15,150, unchanged [9]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,568 tons, an increase of 978 tons and 437 tons respectively. On March 12, the LME nickel inventory was 285,684, a decrease of 564; the nickel warehouse receipts were 53,904, a decrease of 437; the total inventory was 339,588, a decrease of 1,001 [11][12]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 6, the Wuxi inventory was 618,600 tons, the Foshan inventory was 398,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 22,300 tons compared to the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 716,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons. On March 12, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 51,238, a decrease of 176 [16][17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - Nickel Ore: On March 12, the CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 80 dollars per wet ton, unchanged; with Ni0.9% was 34.5 dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 14.5 dollars per ton, unchanged; to Tianjin Port was 15.5 dollars per ton, unchanged [19]. - Nickel - Iron: The high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1,092.53 yuan per nickel point, up 1.21; the low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,700 yuan per ton, down 50 [19]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost was 14,254, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,304, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 18,041 [21]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 138,806 yuan per ton [24].