大越期货钢材早报-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black commodity sector will return to fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "reality of high inventory" and the "expectation of peak - season demand". In the short term, whether the intensity of demand recovery can match the speed of supply recovery will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot and Basis - For rebar, the spot price is not given, and the basis is 100, which is bullish. For hot - rolled coils, the spot price is 3260 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 15, which is neutral [1][2] Profit and Cost - No information provided Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.5455 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, which is bearish. Hot - rolled coils: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8231 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, and the social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, with prominent inventory pressure, which is bearish [1][2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - No information provided Hot - Rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The recovery strength of downstream consumption of hot - rolled coils is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory [2] Macro - No information provided