建信期货生猪日报-20260313

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: March 13, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Futures: On the 12th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then冲高回落 and fluctuated downwards, closing in the red at the end. The highest price was 11,235 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,130 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 11,076 lots to 370,402 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 12th, the national average price of三元外 pigs was 10.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. Comments - Supply side: The production capacity continues to be realized, and the slaughter of the breeding side may continue to increase. A small amount of pig sources in February were postponed to March for slaughter. According to sample data from Yongyi, the planned slaughter volume in March is 27.25 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 25.29% in the monthly planned volume. Therefore, the supply-side pressure remains high, and the overall supply level is still loose [9]. - Demand side: The price has fallen to a low level, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is significantly advantageous. In some areas, a small amount of secondary fattening has entered the market. After the festival, the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased significantly, mainly digesting the festival inventory, and the trading is light. At present, the consumption is slowly increasing in a restorative manner, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. Data shows that on March 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 142,400 heads, an increase of 16,000 heads compared with the previous day, a week-on-week increase of 6,000 heads, and a month-on-month decrease of 144,000 heads [9]. - Overall: In the spot market, the demand is slowly increasing in a restorative manner after the festival, but the supply pressure is still high, and the supply and demand are still relatively loose. The spot price is mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, the production capacity is sufficient, and the supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase. At the same time, it is the off-season for consumption, and the support for the market is weak. The 05/07 contracts are mainly fluctuating weakly, but attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [9]. Group 3: Industry News - As of March 5, the expected cost of self-breeding and self-raising was 12.10 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of fattening pigs purchased externally is affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening pigs purchased externally to 125 kg and then sold is 12.51 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg [10][12]. Group 4: Data Overview - As of March 5, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was -206.3 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 46.7 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening pigs purchased externally was -152.5 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9 yuan/head [21]. - According to Yongyi Consulting, the average market sales price of 6.5 kg piglets in the week of March 5 was 348 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head compared with the previous week [21]. - In the week of March 5, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.15 kg, an increase of 0.42 kg compared with the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 0.33%, an increase of 2.10 kg compared with the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 1.67%, and an increase of 1.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 0.86% [21]. - In the week of March 5, the cost of purchasing 110 kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg was 10.45 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg compared with the previous week; the cost of fattening 125 kg pigs to 150 kg was 10.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.25 yuan/kg compared with the previous week [21].