建信期货股指日评-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the signs of easing geopolitical disturbances and the full release of panic sentiment, the stock index trend will return to the domestic fundamentals. The market may experience a phased rebound, but the pressure around the Shanghai Composite Index at 4,200 points remains significant. Geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and market sentiment is expected to be relatively cautious during the earnings disclosure period. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of high - selling and low - buying. In the medium term, the relative performance of IC and IM related to new - quality productivity is still favored [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 12, the Wind All - A Index declined with shrinking trading volume. It oscillated downward after the opening, rebounded and recovered in the afternoon, closing down 0.53%. Nearly 4,000 stocks in the whole market declined. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.36%, 0.46%, 0.52%, and 0.33% respectively. In the futures market, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.61%, 0.58%, 0.71%, and 0.43% respectively (calculated by closing price) [6] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - In the external market, the conflict between the US and Iran has escalated. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said its forces fired at ships that did not obey orders in the Gulf region. Geopolitical conflicts have reignited inflation concerns in overnight assets, leading to an increase in the US dollar index and crude oil, a decline in gold and US Treasury bonds, and an overall decline in US stocks. In the domestic market, in terms of liquidity, the trading volume of the two markets has shrunk after the sentiment has gradually recovered and is currently stable at around 2.5 trillion [7] 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the performance of domestic major indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of Wind All - A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, share statistics of major ETF funds, and trading volume statistics of major ETFs. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][20] 3.3 Industry News - On March 12, at the regular press conference, Reuters asked about the US government's launch of two new trade investigations into the "excess industrial capacity" of 16 major trading partners including China, and the US Trade Representative's Office listing the Chinese auto industry as a so - called "over - capacity" industry. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China's stance on Sino - US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear, opposing all forms of unilateral tariff measures. The so - called over - capacity is a false proposition, and China opposes political manipulation on this pretext [30]