建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260313

Report Date - The report date is March 13, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Due to the limited actual release speed of the strategic petroleum reserve and the unresolved conflict between the US and Iran, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to intensify market volatility. The crude oil market first experiences a short - term decline and then fluctuates upwards, while the plastic and chemical sector opens high and closes low. The driving logic of polyolefins will gradually change from single cost - support to dual - drive of "cost increase and substantial supply contraction". In the short term, the reality of blocked upstream raw materials, device production cuts, and controlled - selling will continue to support high prices. However, the subsequent evolution of the market will highly depend on the situation in the Middle East. If the blockade exceeds expectations, it will strengthen the supply - driven factor and push up prices [6] Market Review and Outlook - Crude oil market fluctuates. The plastic and chemical sector opens high and closes low. L2605 of linear low - density polyethylene closes at 8,236 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton (4.17%), with a trading volume of 1.238 million lots and an increase in positions of 4,953 lots to 327,626 lots. PP2605 closes at 8,303 yuan/ton, up 324 yuan (4.06%), with a decrease in positions of 10,939 lots to 410,800 lots. The release of the strategic petroleum reserve shows the attitude of major consumer countries to intervene in energy prices, but the released reserves cannot quickly turn into the daily effective market flow. The IEA significantly lowers the oil supply growth forecast, expecting the supply in March to drop to the lowest level since Q1 2022 [6] Industry News - On March 12, 2026, the inventory level of major producers is 800,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 4.76%. The inventory in the same period last year was 820,000 tons. PE market prices show a mixed trend. The price of LLDPE in North China is 7,600 - 8,600 yuan/ton, in East China is 7,900 - 8,200 yuan/ton, and in South China is 8,150 - 8,850 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is temporarily 8,300 - 8,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to cost pressure, downstream factories' enthusiasm for purchasing propylene decreases, and overall propylene demand declines. PP market shows signs of recovery. The mainstream price of drawing materials in North China is 7,800 - 8,100 yuan/ton, in East China is 7,800 - 8,100 yuan/ton, and in South China is 7,950 - 8,500 yuan/ton [7] Data Overview - The report includes data such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, and the settlement price of the crude oil futures main contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14] Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2701 | 7,780 | 7,719 | 7,942 | 7,666 | 226 | 3.02 | 2,085 | 280 | | Plastic 2605 | 8,400 | 8,236 | 8,617 | 8,190 | 330 | 4.17 | 327,108 | 4,435 | | Plastic 2609 | 7,855 | 7,934 | 8,264 | 7,855 | 352 | 4.64 | 134,486 | 16,770 | | PP2701 | 7,400 | 7,448 | 7,630 | 7,291 | 249 | 3.46 | 10,706 | - 32 | | PP2605 | 8,399 | 8,303 | 8,697 | 8,270 | 324 | 4.06 | 410,773 | - 10,939 | | PP2609 | 7,700 | 7,751 | 8,120 | 7,646 | 301 | 4.04 | 164,282 | 15,067 | [5]