建信期货国债日报-20260313

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: March 13, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market sentiment improved in the afternoon, with treasury bond futures closing higher across the board. The yields of major bank - interbank interest - rate bonds declined across the board, with the decline of the 10 - year treasury bond yield within 1bp. The bank - interbank liquidity tightened marginally under continuous open - market withdrawals, and tax - period disturbances will increase next Monday [8][9][10]. - The February PMI was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened. However, high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production, and overseas export demand remained strong. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter may continue to perform well, dampening market expectations of monetary easing. The unclear situation in the US - Iran conflict has boosted risk - aversion demand in the short term, but the sharp rise in oil prices has also led to an increase in inflation expectations. The financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, bringing liquidity shocks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board as the bond market sentiment improved in the afternoon [8]. - The yields of major bank - interbank interest - rate bonds declined across the board, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield (250016) dropping 0.7bp to 1.8070% by 16:30 [9]. - The bank - interbank liquidity tightened marginally under continuous open - market withdrawals. The net open - market reverse - repurchase injection was 1.5 billion yuan today. Tax - period disturbances will increase as next Monday is the tax - payment deadline in March. The DR overnight rate in the inter - bank deposit market dropped 4.2bp to around 1.37%, the 7 - day funding rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.47%, and the medium - and long - term funding remained stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly around 1.56 - 1.58% [10]. Conclusion - The February PMI was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened, but high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production. Overseas export demand remained strong, as evidenced by good export data from January to February. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter may continue to perform well, dampening market expectations of monetary easing. The unclear situation in the US - Iran conflict has boosted risk - aversion demand in the short term, but the sharp rise in oil prices has also led to an increase in inflation expectations. The financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, bringing liquidity shocks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed, passing multiple resolutions and laws, including the resolution on the government work report, the resolution on the 14th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, the "Ecological Environment Code of the People's Republic of China", and approving the national economic and social development plan and the central budget for 2026 [13]. - The US government will launch two new trade investigations into the "excess industrial capacity" of 16 major trading partners, including China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that China opposes all forms of unilateral tariff measures, and the so - called over - capacity is a false proposition [13]. - Some member banks were required to strengthen self - discipline management at a meeting of the market interest rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism, with the proportion of inter - bank current deposits with an interest rate higher than the 7 - day reverse - repurchase OMO policy rate (1.4%) not exceeding 10% - 20% at the end of the quarter. It is expected that more than 10 trillion yuan of inter - bank deposits may see an interest - rate cut [13]. - The Ministry of Finance revised the classification of government revenue and expenditure in 2026, adding new expenditure items in the functional classification of government - funded budget expenditures related to the use of ultra - long - term special treasury bond revenues [14]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves to stabilize the soaring crude - oil prices during the US - Israel - Iran conflict. The G7 supports the use of strategic reserves to address the shortage of oil supply and market fluctuations [14]. - In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate returning to double digits at 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%; and the trade surplus was 1.50349 trillion yuan [15]. 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on March 12, 2026, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - Money Market: The report mentions the changes in SHIBOR term structure and trends, as well as the changes in bank - interbank pledged - repurchase weighted interest rates and inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase interest rates [30][34]. - Derivatives Market: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36].