建信期货棉花日报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA report in March 2026 increased the global cotton output in the 2025/26 season by 250,000 tons to 26.34 million tons, while reducing global cotton consumption by 30,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, and the global ending stocks increased by 280,000 tons. The report is generally bearish, but the market focus has shifted to the 2026/27 season, so the impact on the market is limited. The external market is oscillating strongly. In the domestic market, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton remains high, and the upward space is still restricted by the import cotton price. The downstream peak - season demand shows signs of starting, and the fundamentals change little. The market should pay attention to the previous high pressure. The domestic cotton price is expected to show a high - level oscillation trend later [8] - The "Golden March and Silver April" traditional textile peak season has arrived, and the adjustment of the US tariff policy is beneficial to textile exports. The replenishment demand of textile enterprises after the Spring Festival has increased, and the sales of lint cotton are smooth. The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region government plans to keep the total cotton output stable at around 5.6 million tons in 2026 (a 9.2% decrease from 6.165 million tons in 2025), and the market expects the new - season cotton supply to tighten [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly. The latest price index of 328 - grade cotton is 16,848 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic cotton yarn market is improving, the downstream shipments are increasing, and the market trading atmosphere is warming up. The all - cotton grey fabric market is generally stable, with the walking speed slower than before and the price remaining stable. The demand for high - count and high - density grey fabrics is still good, and weaving factories are producing according to orders [7] - The USDA report in March 2026 increased the global cotton output in the 2025/26 season by 250,000 tons to 26.34 million tons, including an increase of 160,000 tons in Brazilian cotton to 4.25 million tons and an increase of 110,000 tons in Chinese cotton to 7.73 million tons. It decreased global cotton consumption by 30,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, with an increase of 110,000 tons in Chinese cotton consumption to 8.6 million tons and decreases of 40,000 tons, 20,000 tons, and 20,000 tons in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam respectively. The global ending stocks increased by 280,000 tons. The external market is oscillating strongly. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton remains high, the downstream peak - season demand shows signs of starting, and the market should pay attention to the previous high pressure [8] 3.2 Industry News - According to the monthly supply - demand report of agricultural products released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, this month's prediction of China's cotton supply - demand situation is consistent with last month, and the average cotton price is slightly increased. The "Golden March and Silver April" traditional textile peak season has arrived, and the adjustment of the US tariff policy is beneficial to textile exports. The replenishment demand of textile enterprises after the Spring Festival has increased, and the sales of lint cotton are smooth. The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region government plans to keep the total cotton output stable at around 5.6 million tons in 2026 (a 9.2% decrease from 6.165 million tons in 2025), and the market expects the new - season cotton supply to tighten, with the domestic cotton price expected to show a high - level oscillation trend later [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][29]