《能源化工》日报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene and Styrene - Due to the tense geopolitical situation, the supply of pure benzene is expected to decline, and the supply - demand outlook has improved. However, the price will fluctuate with oil prices. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and shrink the EB04 - BZ04 spread when it is high [1]. - The supply of styrene in March remains high, and the supply - demand is expected to slightly reduce inventory. The price will follow oil price fluctuations, and the strategy is the same as that for pure benzene [1]. Urea - The short - term price of urea is relatively firm, but there may be a downward trend after the return - green fertilizer season in mid - March, mainly affected by sentiment. The main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 1860 - 1900 range, and the strategy is to go long at low levels [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The short - term rise of caustic soda is due to the optimistic expectations from geopolitical conflicts. The supply - demand situation is still severe, and attention should be paid to the actual delivery volume of downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [3]. - The price of PVC is expected to be passively pushed up. The supply - demand situation has slightly changed, and the cost - end transmission has uncertainties [3]. Natural Rubber - The new rubber supply is gradually being released, and the demand has uncertainties. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16500 - 17500, and attention should be paid to the reduction of tire demand in the Middle East [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, and it is affected by macro fluctuations. The market is expected to fluctuate, and the range is 1150 - 1300. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider the arbitrage of short soda ash and long glass [5]. - The supply of glass has a low daily melting volume, and the inventory has been well reduced. The strategy is to wait and see, with a range of 1000 - 1150, and go long at low levels after the macro situation stabilizes. Also, consider the arbitrage of short soda ash and long glass [5]. Polyolefins - The short - term market of LLDPE and PP is strong due to cost support, supply reduction, and demand recovery expectations. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual procurement demand of downstream [6]. Methanol - The price of methanol is widely fluctuating due to geopolitical sentiment. The supply may have an actual reduction, the demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory has started to reduce. Attention should be paid to the progress of the conflict, the inventory reduction rhythm, and the implementation of maintenance [7]. Crude Oil - In the short term, oil prices will maintain a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support", and Brent is likely to fluctuate in the range of 80 - 100 US dollars per barrel [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to decline, but attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback. The price will follow oil price fluctuations, and the strategy is to go long at low levels after the market stabilizes [10]. - For PTA, the self - driving force is limited, and the price follows the cost - end. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [10]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply in March has decreased significantly, and the inventory reduction amplitude may increase. The price has the momentum to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall [10]. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuations. The strategy is the same as that for PTA [10]. - For bottle - chips, the supply is expected to increase in March, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. The strategy is the same as that for PTA [10]. LPG No specific view statement provided. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: On March 12, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. all increased compared with March 11, while the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [1]. - Benzene - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of benzene - styrene spot and futures increased slightly, but the spreads and cash - flows decreased to varying degrees [1]. - Downstream Cash - Flows: The cash - flows of downstream products such as phenol, caprolactam, and aniline changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: The inventories of pure benzene and benzene - styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the operating rates of some industries changed slightly [1]. Urea - Futures and Spot Prices: The futures prices of urea increased, and the spot prices were generally stable [2]. - Raw Materials and Downstream Products: The prices of upstream raw materials were mostly stable, and the prices of some downstream products increased slightly [2]. - Supply and Demand: The daily production of urea decreased slightly, the operating rate remained high, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand from agriculture and industry is in a state of recovery [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures Prices: The prices of caustic soda and PVC increased to varying degrees, and the basis and spreads changed [3]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: The overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC changed, and the export profits increased [3]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased slightly, and the operating rate of the PVC industry decreased slightly. The demand for downstream products of caustic soda and PVC improved [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of caustic soda factories increased slightly, and the inventory of PVC upstream factories and the total social inventory decreased [3]. Natural Rubber - Spot Prices and Basis: The price of natural rubber in Yunnan increased, and the basis changed significantly [4]. - Monthly Spreads: The monthly spreads of natural rubber changed [4]. - Fundamental Data: The production of natural rubber in some countries changed, the operating rates of tire industries increased, and the import and export volumes and inventories also changed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: The prices of glass and soda ash increased slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [5]. - Supply: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash increased slightly, and the daily melting volume of glass decreased [5]. - Inventory: The inventories of glass and soda ash factories decreased [5]. - Real Estate Data: The year - on - year changes in real estate data such as new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area improved to varying degrees [5]. Polyolefins - Futures and Spot Prices: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and the spot prices also increased. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rates of PE and PP devices decreased, and the operating rates of downstream industries increased [6]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory of PE increased, and the social inventory decreased. The enterprise inventory of PP increased slightly, and the trader inventory decreased [6]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: The futures prices of methanol increased, and the basis and spreads changed [7]. - Inventory: The inventories of methanol enterprises, ports, and the society decreased [7]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises remained stable, and the operating rates of some downstream industries increased [7]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased significantly, and the spreads also changed [8]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of refined oil products increased, and the spreads and cracking spreads changed [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream and Downstream Product Prices and Cash - Flows: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha increased, and the prices and cash - flows of downstream polyester products also changed [10]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of PX changed [10]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of PTA changed, and the processing fees decreased [10]. - MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of MEG changed, and the import profit increased [10]. - Operating Rates: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: The futures prices of LPG increased, and the basis and spreads changed [11]. - External Market Prices: The external market prices of LPG increased [11]. - Inventory: The refinery storage ratio of LPG decreased, and the port inventory and storage ratio increased [11]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rate of upstream main refineries increased slightly, and the operating rates of downstream industries also increased [11].