大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend last week, with a production of 22,590 tons, a 3.51% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. The demand - side had an increase in inventory of sample enterprises. The cost - side had different profit situations for different raw materials. Factors such as supply and demand balance, price fluctuations, and inventory changes would affect the price of lithium carbonate 2605 to fluctuate in the range of 152,580 - 163,620 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,590 tons, a 3.51% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [7]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month and the inventory may be reduced [7]. - Cost: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 157,782 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 728 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 151,428 yuan/ton, a 1.35% daily decrease, resulting in a profit of 942 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [7]. - Base Difference: On March 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 05 contract was 1,020 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 17,476 tons, unchanged week - on - week and lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,647 tons, a 4.32% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 37,020 tons, a 2.93% week - on - week decrease and lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 98,958 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week decrease and lower than the historical average, a bullish situation [7]. - Disk Surface: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, a bullish situation [7]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, a bearish situation [7]. - Likely and Unlikely Factors: Likely factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. Unlikely factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [9][10]. - Main Logic: Under the tight balance of supply and demand, the sentiment fluctuates due to news [11]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price and Base Difference: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of 6% spodumene was 2,195 US dollars/ton, a 0.90% decrease from the previous value; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan/ton, a 0.63% decrease from the previous value [14]. - Supply and Demand Data: The supply - side data showed changes in indicators such as weekly operating rate, production cost, and production profit. The demand - side data showed changes in indicators such as monthly operating rate, production, and inventory of related products [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore showed fluctuations over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica also showed changing trends in different years [24]. - Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate had changes, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also showed different levels in different periods [24]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed changes in different years [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The demand, production, import, and export of lithium ore in different months from 2025 to 2026 were listed, and the balance situation was calculated. For example, in February 2026, the demand was - 80,211, the production was 21,540, the import was 59,830, and the balance was 1,149 [27][28]. 3.5 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different changing trends in different years. The monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate also changed over time [31]. - Import and Recycling: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the monthly recycling volume of waste lithium batteries showed different levels in different periods [33][35]. 3.6 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The demand, production, import, and export of lithium carbonate in different months from 2025 to 2026 were listed, and the balance situation was calculated. For example, in February 2026, the demand was - 111,503, the production was 83,090, the import was 21,800, and the balance was - 6,821 [38]. 3.7 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly operating rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different changing trends in different years. The production and export volume of lithium hydroxide also changed over time [40][42]. 3.8 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The demand, production, import, and export of lithium hydroxide in different months from 2025 to 2026 were listed, and the balance situation was calculated. For example, in February 2026, the demand was - 24,202, the production was 22,940, the import was 2,000, and the balance was - 1,412 [44]. 3.9 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost and profit of purchasing spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling different types of waste lithium battery materials to produce lithium carbonate showed different changing trends over time. The processing cost composition of lithium mica and spodumene also had different proportions [47][50]. - Profit of Other Processes: The profit of processes such as industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization, and lithium carbonate causticization to lithium hydroxide also showed different levels in different periods [50][53]. 3.10 Inventory - Carbonate Lithium Inventory: The warehouse receipts, weekly inventory, and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) showed different changing trends in different years [56]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) also changed over time [56]. 3.11 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - Price and Production: The price of batteries, monthly cell production, monthly power battery loading volume, power cell monthly shipment volume, and lithium battery export volume showed different changing trends in different years [58]. - Cost: The cost of cells also showed different levels in different periods [58]. 3.12 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - Inventory and Shipment: The inventory of lithium battery cells, energy storage winning bids, energy storage battery industry operating rate, energy storage cell shipment, and monthly energy storage cell production showed different changing trends in different years [60]. - Cost: The cost - price trend of 314Ah lithium iron phosphate energy storage cells was also presented [60]. 3.13 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price of ternary precursors, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, capacity, and monthly production showed different changing trends in different years [63]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The demand, production, import, export, and balance of ternary precursors in different months from 2025 to 2026 were listed [66]. 3.14 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary materials, cost - profit trend, weekly operating rate, capacity, production, processing fee, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory showed different changing trends in different years [69][71]. 3.15 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, production cost, cost - profit trend, capacity, monthly operating rate, monthly production, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory showed different changing trends in different years [73][76]. 3.16 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, dealer inventory warning index, and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles showed different changing trends in different years [81][85].