大越期货菜粕早报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical buying, the lifting of China's restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, and the escalation of the Middle - East conflict. Although the current demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, low inventory supports the market, and the post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good, leading to a short - term bullish oscillation [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in the 2540 - 2600 range. The market is affected by multiple factors, with short - term bullish oscillation. The basis shows a premium, inventory is low, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions are decreasing with capital outflow. After the digestion of overall negative factors, it maintains an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season, with short - term tight supply and low demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed exports to China have returned to normal, and import volume is gradually increasing. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister has improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, and tariffs are being gradually removed. Global rapeseed production is increasing, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the Middle - East situation is escalating, which may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: Good post - Spring Festival demand for Chinese rapeseed meal and no pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the resumption of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Trading data: From March 4th to 12th, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal also changed [13]. - Price data: From March 5th to 12th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures and spot in Fujian showed an upward trend [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: From March 4th to 12th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts increased from 1000 to 2311 [17]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 to 2025 show changes in various indicators such as production, consumption, and inventory [19][21]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal market is affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations and the seasonality of supply and demand. After the digestion of negative factors, it maintains an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [9].