大越期货玻璃早报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass production profit has slightly recovered, cold repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level. The downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and the inventory is at a historical high for the same period. The short - term glass is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. - The main logic is that with low glass supply, dismal downstream deep - processing factory orders, and rising glass factory inventory, the glass is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures is 1113 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.09%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass is 972 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis is - 141 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.71% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 972 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The glass production profit has slightly recovered [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 210, with an operating rate of 70.81%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,500 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [18][20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [24]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 75.849 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.76% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [40]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The glass production profit is at a low level, and the production volume is decreasing [4]. - Negative factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4].