大越期货纯碱早报-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish due to the high production of alkali plants, expected ample supply, declining daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass, and high inventory at soda ash plants [2]. - The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - The inventory of soda ash plants is above the 5 - year average, although it decreased by 0.80% compared to the previous week, still bearish [2][30]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net short and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - In the short term, soda ash is expected to fluctuate mainly due to cost - side support [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1256 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.08%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1230 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.65%. The main basis is - 26 yuan/ton, with a change of - 42.22% [5]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1230 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Soda Ash Production - The production profit of heavy soda ash is at a historical low, with a profit of - 154.65 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 70.50 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.04%, and the weekly output is 80.70 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 43.23 tons, at a historical high [17][19]. Demand Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [22]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.85 tons, and the operating rate is 70.81% [25]. Inventory Analysis - The inventory of national soda ash plants is 193.17 tons, a decrease of 0.80% compared to the previous week, and it is above the 5 - year average [30]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate from 2017 to 2024E [31]. Influencing Factors - Likely to be bullish: Less cold - repair of downstream float glass and stable production; The conflict between the United States and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - Likely to be bearish: The production load of the second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy has increased, and there is no new maintenance plan, so the production is expected to remain at a high level; The production of photovoltaic glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. - Main logic: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].