大越期货尿素早报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year - on - year. After the holiday, with the restart of some natural gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is generally weak but has an upward expectation, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily reached the end of its phased cycle, and comprehensive inventories have increased. The external price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is predicted that the urea market will move in a volatile manner today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year - on - year. After the holiday, daily production is expected to remain high with the restart of some natural gas plants. The overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is weak but has an upward expectation, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily ended its phased cycle, and comprehensive inventories have increased. The external price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 12, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.6%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 tons (-6.2), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate widely. With high daily production year - on - year, differentiated industrial demand, the peak of phased agricultural demand, and inventory accumulation, it is expected that the UR market will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - Positive Factors: Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and overseas prices continue to strengthen [5]. - Negative Factors: Daily production is at a historical high [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - Main Risk Point: Changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1860 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1875 | 3 | Warehouse Receipt | 6380 | 947 | | Shandong Spot | 1890 | 0 | Basis | - 15 | - 3 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 128.8 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1860 | 0 | UR01 | 1857 | 2 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 109.8 | 0 | | FOB China | 3881 | | UR05 | 1875 | 3 | UR Port Inventory | 19.0 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1890 | 5 | | | | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]