LPG早报-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG futures price increased. On March 12, the PG2604 contract closed at 5,641 (+194) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 127 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts was 3,108 (+0). The night - session closed at 5,706 (+21), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 143 (+16) [1]. - The LPG market in Shandong showed mixed price movements, with high - priced areas experiencing price corrections and low - priced areas seeing price rebounds. The overall trading atmosphere was good, driven by the rise in crude oil prices. The estimated price of domestic LPG in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan increase from the previous period. The East China market was stable with a downward trend, and the mainstream transaction price was between 5,900 - 6,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Last week, the futures price rose significantly, mainly due to geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then rebounded, with the latest value at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4,652 lots (-2,027). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai domestic LPG at 4,800 (+600). The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly [1]. - The domestic and international markets fluctuated widely. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1]. - The spot profit of PDH increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then rebounded. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5 pct). The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3 pct), and the external supply was 562,000 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7 pct) [1]. - In the second week after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, and the supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental situation was weak. The impact of the Middle East supply interruption may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short - term under the sign of geopolitical heating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after Carbon Four | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/03/06 | 5,145 | 4,981 | 4,940 | 770 | 791 | 570 | 5,150 | 7,800 | - 908 | - 220 | | 2026/03/09 | 5,920 | 5,973 | 7,310 | 860 | 954 | 593 | 7,350 | 10,500 | - 819 | 304 | | 2026/03/10 | 6,140 | 6,378 | 6,420 | 860 | 761 | 580 | 6,860 | 9,500 | - 562 | 868 | | 2026/03/11 | 6,120 | 6,378 | 5,030 | 865 | 791 | 575 | 6,000 | 9,000 | - 626 | - 217 | | 2026/03/12 | 6,110 | 6,264 | 5,230 | 935 | - | 578 | 5,420 | 8,500 | - 1,172 | - 211 | | Day - to - Day Change | - 10 | - 114 | 200 | 70 | - | 3 | - 580 | - 500 | - 546 | 6 | [1] Day - to - Day Viewpoint - The LPG futures price increased. On March 12, the PG2604 contract closed at 5,641 (+194) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 127 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts was 3,108 (+0). The night - session closed at 5,706 (+21), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 143 (+16) [1]. - The LPG market in Shandong showed mixed price movements, with high - priced areas experiencing price corrections and low - priced areas seeing price rebounds. The overall trading atmosphere was good, driven by the rise in crude oil prices. The estimated price of domestic LPG in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan increase from the previous period. The East China market was stable with a downward trend, and the mainstream transaction price was between 5,900 - 6,500 yuan/ton [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - Last week, the futures price rose significantly, mainly due to geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then rebounded, with the latest value at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4,652 lots (-2,027). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai domestic LPG at 4,800 (+600). The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly [1]. - The domestic and international markets fluctuated widely. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1]. - The spot profit of PDH increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then rebounded. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5 pct). The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3 pct), and the external supply was 562,000 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7 pct) [1]. - In the second week after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, and the supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental situation was weak. The impact of the Middle East supply interruption may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short - term under the sign of geopolitical heating [1].