大越期货贵金属早报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, redemption pressure in the private credit market, and a sharp decline in US stocks, both gold and silver prices fell. The US dollar continued to rise, and the risk - appetite continued to decline. Gold is expected to fluctuate, while silver prices remain under pressure [4][5]. - In the medium - term, with the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, and there is still support at the macro - level. Rising oil prices have increased concerns about stagflation [8][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.49% to 99.75, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.83% to $5084.10 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 510 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the main force's net long position increased [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, COMEX silver futures fell 1.85% to $83.95 per ounce. The basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 58,115 kilograms. The main force's net long position increased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: Dubai witnessed multiple drone attacks, escalating the situation in the Middle East. Concerns about inflation have decreased, and expectations of interest - rate cuts have cooled. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 4.9 yuan per gram, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - Silver: The conflict between the US and Iran continues to heat up, and there is redemption pressure in the private credit market. Silver prices have fallen, and the premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 2,750 yuan per kilogram. Concerns about oil prices have resurfaced, and silver prices remain under pressure [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - At 15:00, pay attention to the UK's January GDP, industrial output, and goods trade balance. - At 15:45, focus on France's February CPI final value. - At 17:45, listen to the speech of European Central Bank Governing Council member Wunsch. - At 20:30, watch for the US's January personal income, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), preliminary durable goods orders, and the fourth - quarter GDP revision, as well as Canada's February unemployment rate. - At 22:00, focus on the preliminary value of the US's March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. - On Saturday, there is the Shanghai Global Investment Promotion Conference. - On Sunday, there is the 315 Gala [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 2.1, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The futures warehouse receipts are 105,420 kilograms, an increase of 510 kilograms, which is bearish [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 233, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 309,974 kilograms, an increase of 58,115 kilograms, which is bullish [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main force's net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The main force's net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.6. Factors Affecting Gold and Silver - Gold - Likely Bullish Factors: Global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, significant shadow of the Federal Reserve, rising expectations of easing, sharp decline in the US dollar, and the resurgence of Trump's tariff disputes [10][11]. - Likely Bearish Factors: The marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy fades, significant differences within the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest - rate cuts, optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the ineffectiveness of reciprocal tariffs [10][11]. - Silver - Likely Bullish Factors: Global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, significant shadow of the Federal Reserve, potential determination of the new Fed chairman, rising expectations of easing, resurgence of Trump's tariff disputes, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors for silver prices, low spot inventory, and intense supply - shortage games [10][11]. - Likely Bearish Factors: The marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy fades, significant differences within the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest - rate cuts, deterioration of risk appetite, and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [10][11].