《农产品》日报-20260313
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-03-13 02:54
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - The basis quotes of oils are unable to rise due to the upward movement of the futures market and the off - season demand. The price of rapeseed oil may have a chance to reach the 10,000 - yuan mark again if the crude oil futures price continues to rise. The Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate within the range of 4500 - 4600 ringgit, and the domestic palm oil futures may face pressure to decline. The CBOT soybean oil may continue to rise in the short - term, and the domestic soybean oil basis quotes are supported [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures are slightly down but close to a two - week high. The US cotton export sales have increased week - on - week, and it is expected to maintain a low - level range - bound pattern. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton has回调 after several rises, and the cotton futures' long - position pattern continues [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures have closed higher. It is expected that the short - term sugar price will remain firm with limited downward adjustment space. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound and slightly stronger trend, but the upward momentum for a significant price increase is limited [3]. 2.4 Jujube Industry - The 25/26 crop season jujube market still has an oversupply pattern. The consumption market is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The warehouse receipt cost supports the futures price, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress and weather conditions in the producing areas [5]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high level as the market sentiment has cooled. The spot market shows a "strong in the west and weak in the east" pattern. The inventory decline supports the futures price, and attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival replenishment, ordinary fruit inventory reduction, and weather changes [8]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - The corn price is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but the expected increase in supply and substitution limit its upward space, and it will maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [10]. 2.7 Meal Industry - The US soybean is supported by multiple factors but lacks fundamental changes. The domestic basis has strengthened, and the futures market is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound pattern with a strengthening basis [13]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The large - scale pig slaughter and off - season demand suppress the spot price. The secondary fattening enthusiasm is low, and it is expected that the futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out, with the possibility of further decline in the near - term contracts [16]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The supply of laying hens remains stable, and the demand is moderate. The egg price is expected to maintain a low - level range - bound pattern in the short - term [18]. 3. Summary of Each Industry Based on the Content 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8950 yuan, up 190 yuan (2.17%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 is 8632 yuan, up 62 yuan (0.72%); the basis is 318 yuan, up 128 yuan (67.37%) [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9753 yuan, up 273 yuan (2.88%); the futures price of P2605 is 9684 yuan, up 158 yuan (1.66%); the basis is - 46 yuan, up 250% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10232 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.10%); the futures price of OI605 is 9769 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.09%); the basis is 464 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.22%) [1]. Spread Changes - Inter - month spreads: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean oil is - 22 yuan, down 19.30%; the 05 - 09 spread of palm oil is 26 yuan, up 46.43%; the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed oil is - 12 yuan, down 12.82% [1]. - Cross - variety spreads: The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil is - 803 yuan, down 11.53%; the 2605 spread between soybean oil and palm oil is - 1052 yuan, down 10.04%; the spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1282 yuan, down 13.50%; the 2605 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1137 yuan, down 5.88% [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 is 15545 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan (1.47%); the price of cotton 2609 is 15380 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan (1.40%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (16.67%) [2]. Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 16673 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan (1.15%); the CC Index: 3128B is 16848 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan (1.08%); the FC Index:M: 1% is 12647 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan (0.81%) [2]. Industry Situation - The commercial inventory is 547.70 million tons, down 31.17 million tons (- 5.4%); the industrial inventory is 89.40 million tons, up 3.30 million tons (3.8%); the import volume is 17.79 million tons, up 5.89 million tons (49.5%); the bonded area inventory is 47.10 million tons, up 4.20 million tons (9.8%) [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of sugar 2605 is 5416 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.13%); the price of sugar 2609 is 5447 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.02%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 31 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (- 24.00%) [3]. Spot Market - The price in Nanning is 5470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.18%); the price in Kunming is 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Nanning basis is 54 yuan, up 17 yuan (45.95%); the Kunming basis is - 96 yuan, up 7 yuan (6.80%) [3]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 689.00 million tons, down 60.28 million tons (- 8.05%); the cumulative national sugar sales is 270.00 million tons, down 103.50 million tons (- 27.71%); the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 402.90 million tons, down 78.80 million tons (- 16.36%) [3]. 2.4 Jujube Industry Futures Market - The price of jujube 2605 is 9080 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 0.66%); the price of jujube 2607 is 9245 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (- 0.86%); the price of jujube 2609 is 9535 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan (- 1.00%) [5]. Spot Market - The price of Cangzhou special - grade jujube is 9210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.11%); the price of Cangzhou first - grade jujube is 7900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Cangzhou second - grade jujube is 6900 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. 2.5 Apple Industry Futures Market - The price of apple 2605 is 9984 yuan/ton, down 252 yuan (- 2.46%); the price of apple 2610 is 8636 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.24%); the 5 - 10 spread is 1348 yuan/ton, down 231 yuan (- 14.63%) [8]. Spot Market - The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market is 23 vehicles, down 2 vehicles (- 8.00%); the arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market is 12 vehicles, down 1 vehicle (- 7.69%); the arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market is 16 vehicles, down 1 vehicle (- 5.88%) [8]. Industry Situation - The national cold - storage inventory is 499.72 million tons, down 27.81 million tons (- 5.27%) [8]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry Corn - The price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port is 2396 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.04%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price at Shekou Port is 2500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.40%); the import profit is 181 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan (- 6.44%) [10]. Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2605 is 2723 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.18%); the average price of corn starch is 2917 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.31%); the basis is 194 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (2.11%) [10]. 2.7 Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu is 3280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.92%); the futures price of M2605 is 3054 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.46%); the basis is 226 yuan, up 44 yuan (24.18%) [13]. Rapeseed Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu is 2666 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (1.53%); the futures price of RM2605 is 2492 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.48%); the basis is 168 yuan, up 28 yuan (20.00%) [13]. Spreads - The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal is - 10 yuan, down 71.43%; the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal is 12 yuan, up 120.00%; the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.74, up 0.021 (0.76%); the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.83, up 0.033 (1.19%); the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 620 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 1.59%); the 2605 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 562 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 4.42%) [13]. 2.8 Pig Industry Futures Market - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 11130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.36%); the price of live pigs 2603 is 10180 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.89%); the 3 - 5 spread is - 950 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (12.04%) [16]. Spot Market - The price in Henan is 10050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price in Shandong is 10250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Sichuan is 10200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Liaoning is 9900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price in Guangdong is 10710 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price in Hunan is 10110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Hebei is 10100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [16]. Industry Situation - The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 165,965 heads, up 1547 heads (0.94%); the weekly white - strip price is 17.94 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan (- 2.92%); the weekly piglet price is 27.44 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.46 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan (- 0.03%); the weekly slaughter weight is 128.55 kg, up 0.4 kg (0.31%); the weekly self - breeding profit is - 238 yuan/head, down 78.3 yuan (- 49.06%); the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 58.7 yuan/head, down 79.7 yuan (- 382.72%); the monthly fertile sow inventory is 39610,000 heads, down 290,000 heads (- 0.73%) [16]. 2.9 Egg Industry Futures Market - The price of the egg 04 contract is 3271 yuan/500KG, up 30 yuan (0.93%); the price of the egg 05 contract is 3457 yuan/500KG, up 19 yuan (0.55%); the 4 - 5 spread is - 186 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan (5.58%) [18]. Spot Market - The egg - producing area price is 3.11 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis is - 342 yuan/500KG, down 19 yuan (- 5.87%) [18]. Industry Situation - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks is 3.50 yuan/feather, up 0.20 yuan (6.06%); the price of culled chickens is 4.94 yuan/jin, up 0.51 yuan (11.39%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.63, down 0.26 (- 9.00%); the breeding profit is - 16.02 yuan/feather, down 6.41 yuan (- 249.92%) [18].
《农产品》日报-20260313 - Reportify