聚酯产业链日报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to be tense. The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects the production of refineries in Asia, tightening the supply of PX. However, downstream polyester has difficulty in cost transmission under high raw material prices, and some factories may reduce production. In the short - term, the impact of Middle - East geopolitics on oil prices and raw material supply dominates, but downstream feedback also needs attention. PX absolute price is expected to fluctuate with oil prices, and low - buying is recommended after the market stabilizes [2]. - PTA load remains relatively high, and the recovery of downstream polyester start - up is slow due to high - price raw materials. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in March. The reduction of raw material PX production boosts PTA, but in the short - term, PTA's own driving force is limited, and its absolute price follows the cost side. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and attention should be paid to oil price trends [2]. - In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol significantly declines due to the shutdown or load - reduction of multiple coal - based and oil - based ethylene glycol plants. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz reduces the arrival of foreign ships. With the seasonal increase in polyester load from March to April, the de - stocking of ethylene glycol may increase. The short - term price of ethylene glycol still has upward momentum, but attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise [2]. - The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is still weak. Affected by Middle - East geopolitical news and domestic chemical enterprise load - reduction, polyester - related prices are generally strong. Some factories may reduce or stop production due to high raw material costs. In the short - term, short - fiber is mainly driven by raw materials. The single - side strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - In March, the domestic supply of bottle chips gradually increases, but if the cost of crude oil and upstream polyester raw materials continues to rise, the restart plan of some bottle - chip factory devices may be postponed. Under the influence of macro and crude oil stimulation and the peak PET procurement season, the downstream procurement of bottle chips is expected to follow up, and the supply - demand of bottle chips is expected to tighten. The single - side strategy of PR is the same as that of PTA, and attention should be paid to the pressure above 600 for the main PR disk processing fee [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread of PX - related - CFR China MX increased from 1121 to 1207, a rise of 86 or 7.7%. CFR China PX rose from 1216 to 1305, an increase of 89 or 7.3%. PX spot price (in RMB) increased from 9739 to 10452, a rise of 713 or 7.3% [2]. - PX05 - PX09 increased from 562 to 736, a rise of 174 or 31.0%. PX - crude oil spread increased by 5.0%, PX - naphtha spread decreased from 341 to 328, a decrease of 13 or 3.8%, and PX - MX spread increased from 65 to 68, a rise of 3 or 3.2% [2]. 3.2 Price and Spread of PTA - related - PTA East - China spot price increased from 6320 to 7030, a rise of 710 or 11.2%. TA futures 2605 rose from 6660 to 6998, an increase of 338 or 5.1%, and TA futures 2609 rose from 6294 to 6606, an increase of 312 or 5.0% [2]. - PTA spot processing fee decreased from 243 to 236, a decrease of 7. PTA disk processing fee (05) decreased from 417 to 305, a decrease of 111 or 26.7%, and PTA disk processing fee (09) decreased from 419 to 396, a decrease of 23 or 5.6% [2]. 3.3 Price and Spread of MEG - related - MEG East - China spot price increased from 4185 to 4400, a rise of 215 or 5.1%. EG futures 2605 rose from 4577 to 4653, an increase of 76 or 1.7%, and EG futures 2609 rose from 4434 to 4536, an increase of 102 or 2.3% [2]. - MEG port inventory increased from 100.2 to 106.8, a rise of 6.6 or 6.6%. MEG arrival expectation decreased from 10.9 to 7.8, a decrease of 3.1 or 28.4% [2]. 3.4 Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow - Polyester chip price increased from 7040 to 7650, a rise of 610 or 8.7%. Bottle - chip futures PR2605 price rose from 7836 to 8242, an increase of 406 or 5.2% [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning short - fiber price increased from 7885 to 8480, a rise of 595 or 7.5%. Short - fiber futures PF2604 price rose from 8130 to 8456, an increase of 326 or 4.0% [2]. - POY150/48 cash - flow increased from 401 to 414, a rise of 13 or 3.3%. FDY150/96 cash - flow decreased from 134 to 121, a decrease of 13 or 9.7% [2]. - DTY150/48 cash - flow increased from 190 to 250, a rise of 60 or 31.6%. Polyester chip cash - flow decreased from - 102 to - 276, a decrease of 174 [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip processing fee decreased from 1052 to 862, a decrease of 187 or 17.8%. Bottle - chip disk processing fee (05) increased from 582 to 672, a rise of 90 or 15.5% [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning short - fiber processing difference decreased from 941 to 824, a decrease of 117 or 12.4%. Short - fiber disk processing difference (04) decreased from 1424 to 922, a decrease of 502 or 35.2% [2]. - Pure - polyester yarn cash - flow increased from - 345 to - 280, an increase of 65 [2]. 3.5 Upstream Price - WTI crude oil (April) increased from 92.5 to 100.46, a rise of 7.96 or 8.5%. Brent crude oil (May) rose from 91.98 to 100.46, an increase of 8.48 or 9.2% [2]. - CFR Northeast Asia ethylene increased from 970 to 1000, a rise of 30 or 3.1%. CFR Japan naphtha increased from 875 to 977, a rise of 102 or 11.7% [2]. 3.6 Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate - Asian PX start - up rate decreased from 84.9% to 83.2%, a decrease of 1.7% or 2.0%. China PX start - up rate decreased from 92.4% to 90.4%, a decrease of 2.0% or 2.2% [2]. - PTA start - up rate increased from 76.6% to 81.0%, a rise of 4.4% or 5.7%. MEG comprehensive start - up rate decreased from 79.0% to 74.1%, a decrease of 4.9% or 6.2% [2]. - Coal - based MEG start - up rate decreased from 84.0% to 83.0%, a decrease of 1.0% or 1.2%. Polyester comprehensive start - up rate increased from 79.5% to 84.1%, a rise of 4.6% or 5.8% [2]. - Direct - spinning filament start - up rate increased from 76.8% to 82.4%, a rise of 5.6%. Polyester bottle - chip start - up rate increased from 69.2% to 69.5%, a rise of 0.3% or 0.4% [2]. - Direct - spinning short - fiber start - up rate increased from 74.1% to 84.6%, a rise of 10.5% or 14.2%. Pure - polyester yarn start - up rate increased from 42.0% to 53.0%, a rise of 11.0% or 26.2% [2]. - Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate increased from 8% to 62%, a rise of 54.0% or 675.0%. Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms start - up rate increased from 12% to 58%, a rise of 46.0% or 383.3% [2]. - Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing start - up rate increased from 12% to 69%, a rise of 57.0% or 475.0% [2].