大越期货原油早报-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the conflict, the total crude oil production of Middle Eastern Gulf countries has been cut by at least 10 million barrels per day, nearly 10% of the global demand. Although many countries are jointly releasing strategic reserve crude oil, the process is slow and difficult to change the short - term shortage situation. If shipping logistics cannot be quickly restored, the supply gap will expand. The Strait of Hormuz's navigation status is worrying, and Iran's new supreme leader has a tough stance. Crude oil will remain relatively strong in the short term. For SC2604, the operation should be long - biased in the 750 - 780 range, and wait for opportunities to try short positions at high levels in the long term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2604, the fundamentals are affected by the Middle East conflict, with production cuts. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Inventory data has both increases and decreases. The price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are both long positions with a decrease in long positions. The short - term trend is strong, with a recommended operation range for SC2604 [3] 2. Recent News - Many Asian refineries are designed to process medium - heavy sulfur - containing Gulf crude oil, and they are highly vulnerable to disruptions in the Gulf shipping channels. It's difficult to find alternative supplies, and some refineries have reduced production or postponed deliveries. The IEA warns that the Middle East war is causing the largest - scale supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, and has adjusted the 2026 global oil demand growth and supply increase forecasts. Iran's new supreme leader threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, and there are also threats and responses from the US, Israel, etc. [5] 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Strait passage is not smooth, and the Middle East situation deteriorates. Bearish factor: Trump intends to quickly end the war. The short - term focus is on geopolitical changes, and in the medium - to - long term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for reverse operations [6] 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude have all increased, with increases of 9.22%, 9.72%, 9.72%, and 13.49% respectively [7] - Spot Market: The prices of various types of spot crude oil such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. have also risen, with increases ranging from 8.39% to 12.64% [9] - Inventory Data: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending March 6 decreased by 1.678 million barrels, while the EIA inventory increased by 3.824 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.117 million barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.511 million barrels as of March 12 [3] 5. Position Data - As of March 3, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds both decreased, with WTI's decreasing by 562 and Brent's decreasing by 35,358 [15][17]