螺纹钢市场周报：炉料走高+需求回升，螺纹期价重心上移-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the conflict between the US and Iran continues to drive up oil prices, and China maintains a loose policy. Industrially, the weekly output of rebar continues to increase, downstream demand recovers, and inventory may reach an inflection point. The market sentiment is relatively cautious, with most purchases made on - demand. It is recommended to operate the RB2605 contract with a bullish bias in a volatile market, while paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [7] - Considering the increase in furnace material prices raising steel - making costs and the rise in international oil prices supporting commodities, it is advisable to consider buying slightly out - of - the - money call options when the futures price pulls back [57] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of March 13, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3142 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [5] - Rebar production increased to 195.3 tons, up 21.99 tons from the previous week and down 31.8 tons year - on - year [5] - Apparent demand continued to increase to 176.81 tons, up 78.58 tons from the previous week and down 56.41 tons year - on - year [5] - Both factory and social inventories increased. The total rebar inventory was 894.17 tons, up 18.49 tons from the previous week and up 40.39 tons year - on - year [5] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 41.13%, up 3.03 percentage points from the previous week and down 12.12 percentage points year - on - year [5] 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, Iran may take strategic measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Chinese vice - premier will lead a delegation to France for economic and trade consultations with the US [7] - Cost: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrival volume increased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. However, rising oil prices and freight rates, along with potential restrictions on BHP Newman powder, supported the strong operation of ore prices. The supply of coking coal and coke remained loose, but geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil prices and the energy sector [7] - Technical: The RB2605 contract moved higher, with the futures price above multiple moving averages and a bullish arrangement of the moving average combination. There was strong technical support at 3100. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA rebounded upwards, and the red bar expanded [7] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures prices fluctuated upwards this week. The RB2605 contract was stronger than the RB2610 contract, and the spread on the 13th was - 23 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] - Rebar warehouse receipts increased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. On March 13, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49651 tons, up 19505 tons week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the rebar futures contract was 7230 lots, an increase of 21093 lots from the previous week [19] - Spot prices increased, and the basis weakened. On March 13, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar 20mm HRB400 was 3290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3337 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis on the 13th was 148 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [23] 3.3. Upstream Market - The spot price of iron ore increased, while the spot price of coke remained flat. On March 13, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 845 yuan/dry ton, up 36 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The arrival volume at 45 ports increased, and port inventories increased. From March 2 to March 8, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2697.5 tons, an increase of 467.5 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2609.9 tons, an increase of 463.0 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1464.5 tons, an increase of 431.7 tons. As of March 13, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17947.32 tons, an increase of 52.49 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 332.33 tons, an increase of 5.35 tons [34] - The capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventories decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.39%, an increase of 0.1%; the daily average coke output was 50.46 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons; coke inventories were 56.43 tons, a decrease of 6.77 tons; the total inventory of coking coal was 814.93 tons, an increase of 18.78 tons; the available days of coking coal were 12.1 days, an increase of 0.26 days [38] 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply Side - In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 6818 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In 2025, China's total crude steel output was 96081 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 1559.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, and cumulative steel imports were 82.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [42] - The weekly output of rebar increased. On March 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.34%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 2.24 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 3.65 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 9.39 tons year - on - year. On March 12, the weekly output of rebar from 139 building material production enterprises was 195.3 tons, an increase of 21.99 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 31.8 tons year - on - year [45] - The operating rate of electric arc furnaces increased. On March 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of rebar from 139 building material production enterprises was 42.82%, an increase of 4.83% from the previous week and a decrease of 6.96% year - on - year. This week, the average operating rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.34%, a month - on - month increase of 32.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.59 percentage points. Except for the Northeast and Northwest regions, which remained flat, other regions increased significantly [48] - The total rebar inventory increased month - on - month. On March 12, the in - factory inventory of rebar from 137 building material production enterprises was 239.62 tons, an increase of 1.69 tons from the previous week and an increase of 13.84 tons year - on - year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 654.55 tons, an increase of 16.8 tons from the previous week and an increase of 26.55 tons year - on - year. The total rebar inventory was 894.17 tons, an increase of 18.49 tons month - on - month and an increase of 40.39 tons year - on - year [51] 3.4.2. Demand Side - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 82788 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 659890 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The new housing construction area was 58770 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. The housing completion area was 60348 million square meters, a decrease of 18.1% - From January to December 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 36.0%, multimodal transport and transport agency investment increased by 22.9%, and water transport investment increased by 7.7% [54] 3.5. Options Market - Due to the increase in furnace material prices raising steel - making costs and the rise in international oil prices supporting commodities, it is advisable to consider buying slightly out - of - the - money call options when the futures price pulls back [57]