豆类市场周报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures all rose this week, with increases of 6.69%, 7.31%, and 3.3% respectively [5][7][8]. - The spot price of soybeans in the Northeast production area is expected to maintain a slight upward trend in the short - term, with high - protein soybeans remaining high and firm [5]. - The South American soybean production outlook is a key variable in the global market. If the Brazilian soybean production reduction expands, it may support the US soybean price [6][7]. - The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be favorable, which has led to an optimistic market expectation for future bio - fuel demand [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Soybean (Bean 1): The main 2605 contract rose 6.69% this week. After the festival, the spot price of soybeans in the Northeast is expected to rise slightly, with high - protein soybeans having limited upward momentum [5]. - Imported Soybeans (Bean 2): The main 2605 contract rose 6.55% this week. The South American production outlook is crucial. Some institutions have lowered their Brazilian production estimates, and the US soybean ending stocks forecast remains unchanged [6]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2605 contract rose 7.31% this week. The South American production outlook is a key factor. Domestic market concerns about supply in late March to early April have led to increased trading volume, and downstream feed enterprises' inventories are relatively sufficient in the short - term [7]. - Soybean Oil: The main 2605 contract rose 3.3% this week. The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be introduced, and the market is optimistic. After the Spring Festival, domestic oil prices have risen, but downstream purchases are cautious [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Changes: The main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil all rose this week, with increases of 6.69%, 7.31%, and 3.3% respectively [12][19][25]. - Spread: As of March 12, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was 4 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil was 92 yuan/ton [31][34]. - Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts: As of March 12, the net positions of the top 20 in soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures were - 26,511 lots, - 490,684 lots, and - 126,592 lots respectively. The warehouse receipts of the main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 24,618 lots, 36,982 lots, and 25,714 lots respectively [39][45][50]. 3.3 Spot Market - Soybean: As of March 12, the spot price of Grade 3 domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was - 449 yuan/ton [54]. - Soybean Meal: As of March 12, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 226 yuan/ton [60]. - Soybean Oil: As of March 12, the spot price of Grade 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 268 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - Imported Soybean Premium: As of March 12, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in March was 115 cents/bushel, unchanged from last week; that of Argentine soybeans was 20 cents/bushel, down 16 cents/bushel from last week; and that of Brazilian soybeans was - 29 cents/bushel, down 19 cents/bushel from last week [70]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Cost: As of March 12, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 5,412.7 yuan/ton, up 203.54 yuan/ton from last week; that of South American soybeans was 3,908.4 yuan/ton, up 188.84 yuan/ton from last week, and the cost difference was 1,504.66 yuan/ton, up 14.7 yuan/ton from last week [74]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Weather: In the US, about 47% (+3) of the soybean - producing areas were in drought last week, with a slight improvement compared to last week but worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, the soybean harvest progress as of March 7 was 50.6% [77][95]. - Supply - Side: In 2025/26, the expected US soybean production was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory was 951.6 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month; the expected Brazilian soybean production was 18,000 million tons, unchanged, and the inventory was 3,791 million tons, unchanged; the expected Argentine soybean production was 4,800 million tons, down 50 million tons from last month, and the inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged [84][88][92]. - Domestic Situation: In the 10th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.7267 million tons, down 4.03% from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons, up 8.46% from last week; the soybean oil inventory was 1.094 million tons, down 0.26% from last week. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 10th week was 1.833 million tons, and the actual operating rate was 50.47%. China's soybean imports in January and February 2026 were 6.571 million tons and 5.976 million tons respectively. The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons [106][109][112][117][120][123]. - Substitute Situation: As of March 12, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,780 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,220 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil narrowed, while the rapeseed - soybean spreads widened. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,702.63 yuan/ton, up 136.31 yuan/ton from last week; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 577 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from last week; the soybean meal/rapeseed meal ratio was 1.21, up 0.03 from last week. The soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.83, down 0.11 from last week [131][134][138][141]. - Transaction Situation: As of February 27, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 437,100 tons, up 264,500 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 74,900 tons, down 4,950 tons from last week [146]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Prices: As of March 12, the price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Beijing was 10.12 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 24.6 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from last week [150]. - Profits: As of February 11, the pig - raising profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, down 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of February 13, the poultry - raising profit was - 0.09 yuan/bird, down 0.12 yuan/bird from last week [155]. - Demand: As of December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, up 1.03% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year. In February 2026, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, down 0.01% month - on - month and 0.48% year - on - year; the inventory of commercial pigs was 37.3205 million heads, up 1.79% month - on - month and 5.57% year - on - year [158][163].