热轧卷板市场周报：成本支撑+库存下滑，热卷期价震荡偏强-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2605 contract is recommended to consider short - term long positions on dips, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control, as the macro - environment has factors such as the US - Iran conflict pushing up oil prices and China maintaining a loose policy, and the industrial side shows a decrease in weekly hot - rolled coil production, an increase in terminal demand, and a slight decline in inventory [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary a. Market Review - As of March 13, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton (+65), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan/ton (+60). The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline to 295.26 (-5.85) million tons (year - on - year - 23.39). The apparent demand increased to 291.31 (+44.58) million tons (year - on - year - 26.72). The factory inventory decreased while the social inventory increased, with the total inventory at 471.59 (-0.1) million tons (year - on - year +55.37). The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, a 3.03 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 12.12 - percentage - point decrease from last year [7] b. Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, Iran's Supreme Leader stated that Iran will not give up revenge and will take strategic measures. Domestically, the central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Chinese vice - premier will hold economic and trade consultations with the US. - Cost - aspect: The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the domestic port inventory continued to rise. However, factors such as rising oil prices, freight costs, and potential restrictions on BHP Newman powder supported the iron ore price. The supply of coking coal and coke was loose, but geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil and energy prices. - Technical - aspect: The HC2605 contract's center of gravity moved up, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages and a bullish arrangement of the moving - average combination. The MACD indicator showed an upward rebound of DIFF and DEA, with an enlarged red column. - Market view: Pay attention to the signals from Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the progress of the US - Iran conflict. Consider short - term long positions on dips for the HC2605 contract [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price - This week, the HC2605 contract fluctuated higher. It was stronger than the HC2610 contract, and the spread on the 13th was - 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton [15] b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On March 13, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 478483 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5368 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 43985 to 6809 contracts [22] c. Spot Price - On March 13, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3305 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 13th was 5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [26] 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On March 13, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 845 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, with no change from last week [32] b. Iron Ore Shipment and Arrival - From March 2 to March 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2897.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 442.9 million tons. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2342.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 348.5 million tons. The arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 2697.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 467.5 million tons; the arrival volume of 45 ports was 2609.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 463.0 million tons; the arrival volume of the six northern ports was 1464.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 431.7 million tons [38] c. Iron Ore Port Inventory - As of March 13, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 17947.32 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.49 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 332.33 million tons, an increase of 5.35 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore increased by 260.29 million tons to 8541.78 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 243.40 million tons to 5564.00 million tons, and the inventory of traded ore increased by 72.57 million tons to 11852.78 million tons. On March 12, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan, Hebei was 241.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.89 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 127.76 million tons [42] d. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in China was 72.39%, an increase of 0.1%. The daily coke output was 50.46 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons. The coke inventory was 56.43 million tons, a decrease of 6.77 million tons. The total inventory of coking coal was 814.93 million tons, an increase of 18.78 million tons, and the available days of coking coal were 12.1 days, an increase of 0.26 days [46] 4. Industry Situation a. Supply Side - Steel Export: In 2025, the annual crude steel output was 96081 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In December 2025, the crude steel output was 6818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 1559.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, and the cumulative steel imports were 82.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [50] - Hot - Rolled Coil Production: On March 13, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.24 percentage points. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.40 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.65 percentage points. The daily average pig - iron output was 221.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 9.39 million tons. On March 12, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 295.26 million tons, a decrease of 5.85 million tons from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 23.39 million tons [53] - Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory: On March 12, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 8.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons from last week and a year - on - year increase of 4.96 million tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 382.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 50.41 million tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 471.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 55.37 million tons [58] b. Downstream Demand - Automobile: In February 2026, automobile production and sales were 167.2 million and 180.5 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. From January to February, automobile production and sales were 412.2 million and 415.2 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% respectively [61] - Household Appliances: In 2025, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 26697.49 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; the production of household refrigerators was 10924.36 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; and the production of household washing machines was 12516.78 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [61]